We screw it up every year, so it's time to take a few mindless minutes, check out what I have to say about the upcoming NFL season (which will play in the background of my life as I concentrate on Randolph-Macon College and high school football) below.
We'll begin with the NFC, because, why not?
NFC EAST:
1) Dallas Cowboys (10-6): No wild card teams out of this division of dysfunction. Thus, we give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt thanks to a much lesser version of a "Big Three" in Prescott, Elliott and Cooper. Zeke will be back, but only Dallas gets to double digit wins in this division, half of their ten wins, however, will be in division.
2) Washington Redskins (7-9): Their defense will carry the day. Derrius Guice could be very promising, should he stay healthy. But with the quarterback position, again, in transition, and Trent Williams nowhere to be found, Washington better run the football 40 times a game. Will it be enough to finally see Jay Gruden leave? That remains to be seen.
3) Philadelphia Eagles (6-10): A fragile quarterback. Who runs the ball? Plus, the Eagles used up their nine lives in their Super Bowl run of two seasons ago. This franchise takes a step back this year and will need to go into 2020 figuring out their true identity.
4) New York Giants (5-11): Saquon can't do everything. Eli will do better than most people think he will, but, eventually, if you think Daniel Jones is the future, you give him his shot, just as Eli got his in 2004 from a gracious Kurt Warner. The Giants' biggest issue is defense. They are alleged to have one.
NFC NORTH:
1) Green Bay Packers (10-6): New coach, inspired quarterback? Aaron Rodgers will be just fine, but who's around him? Can he identify his skilled teammates? Will he be running for his life? And will the Packers have any semblance of a decent defense? In a division where Detroit is falling apart, Minnesota has the ultimate mediocre quarterback, and Chicago has inflated hopes, I'll take Rodgers. But he'd better hurry if he wants a second Lombardi.
2) Chicago Bears (9-7): Trubisky and company come to earth and, despite great efforts by their defense (which is excellent), don't be surprised if they lose with scores like 16-13, 17-10, 20-14. The Bears will be in the wild card mix down the stretch, but finding points may be an issue all season long.
3) Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Two years ago with Case Keenum, they're in the NFC Championship Game. They thank Keenum for his work, sign Kirk Cousins, and immediately flounder. Cousins is not a quarterback who will provide your franchise that longed for championship. Don't be surprised if there are trade rumors, or first round quarterback talk for the 2020 Draft, after this season.
4) Detroit Lions (3-13): You have to wonder what life could have been like for Matthew Stafford had he been born a year earlier or later. But, he's the top guy when the historically bad Lions (coming off their 0-16 season of 2008) are picking first. Every year I hear the Lions are ready, the Lions made some good moves in March and April. How about some moves into the end zone that matter in December? I feel sorry for Stafford.
NFC SOUTH:
1) New Orleans Saints (13-3): They can fold like a cheap tent after two punches to the gut in the last two playoffs, or they can rise up, as their city did over a decade ago, and give it another shot. It will be the latter as Drew Brees is smart enough to know his window is closer to closed than wide open. Alvin Kamara, if used right, and healthy all year, could be the Offensive Player of The Year. If New Orleans gets decent defense, and good offensive line work, the road to Miami may be going through New Orleans.
2) Atlanta Falcons (9-7): Though several years younger than Brees, you get the feeling the Matt Ryan window is starting to close, too. But he's got Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. If he has four seconds in the pocket most plays, Ryan could honestly complete 75 percent of his passes. But they need offensive balance, and definitely better defensive play. Overall, the Falcons need consistency, in all three phases.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10): I love Bruce Arians. If he had a real franchise quarterback in Tampa Bay, I would consider this team for a playoff spot. I can't see Jameis Winston doing it. But Arians will get the most out of his team, make them better, prepare them for 2020, and then deal with the big question: what do we do at quarterback?
4) Carolina Panthers (5-11): Cam Newton isn't one hundred percent. This could be a very, very long season in Charlotte.
NFC WEST:
1) Seattle Seahawks (11-5): A rejuvenated defense with some studs, a winner in Russell Wilson, and, if the team can gel quickly (Pete Carroll is good at making that happen), I think Seattle surprises this season. The 12th Man is awakened.
2) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): They are good, but there is a hangover coming for the Super Bowl runners-up. Three points in the Super Bowl? Is Todd Gurley ever going to be Gurley again? A Wade Phillips led defense is always good, but, with a first place schedule, and having to play some physical AFC North opponents this year, they're in the wild card hunt, simply trying to not be one of those teams to lose the Super Bowl one year, and miss the playoffs the next.
3) Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Nobody sees anything out of Chicago....ah, St. Louis.....err....Arizona. But give me a season of Larry Fitzgerald mentoring Kyler Murray. Then, a few years later should the Cardinals win it all, Fitzgerald, retired by then, would deserve a ring. I'm looking forward to watching the beginnings of what should be a very good team by 2021 or 2022.
4) San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Jimmy G. is not the answer. Nor is Kyle Shanahan. This will be a bitterly disappointing season for the Niners, who, again, will have to start from scratch some 40 years after starting from scratch with a guy named Bill Walsh.
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
NFC EAST: Dallas
NFC NORTH: Green Bay
NFC SOUTH: New Orleans
NFC WEST: Seattle
WILD CARDS: Chicago, Atlanta
#1 Seed: New Orleans
#2 Seed: Seattle
WILD CARD WEEKEND:
#6 Chicago d. #3 Green Bay
#5 Atlanta d. #4 Dallas
NFC DIVISIONALS:
#1 New Orleans d. #6 Chicago
#2 Seattle d. #5 Atlanta
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 New Orleans 28, #2 Seattle 24
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AFC EAST:
1) New England Patriots (14-2): Have you studied the Patriots' schedule? They get the Steelers and Chiefs at home. The Chiefs game is the first of three out of four at home to end the season (the others are divisional games in Weeks 16 and 17). This is a cake walk for the Patriots to, again, get the top seed in the AFC.
2) New York Jets (7-9): The Jets are the only team that could spring an upset of the Patriots in the division. Obviously, I'm rooting for new GM Joe Douglas (Lee-Davis Athletic Hall of Famer) to do well, and, of course, I'm ready for my first Greg Dortch punt return for a touchdown (and yes, it will happen in 2019!) Darnold will improve, but Bell will be a disappointment.
3) Buffalo Bills (6-10): It's Buffalo. What can I say?
4) Miami Dolphins (3-13): Talk about a team in disarray. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start well, then get interception prone, and they'll turn to Josh Rosen and wish they could turn to someone else....
AFC NORTH:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): All this Cleveland talk is nauseating. Big Ben has plenty of weapons and fewer distractions and, more importantly, they know how to win. They'll need better defensive play this season to get to this predicted record.
2) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): This prediction is all about whether Lamar Jackson becomes a real dual-threat quarterback. If he has to improvise all the time due to lack of pressure, or receivers who can't get separation, and this could get sideways. Fast.
3) Cleveland Browns (7-9): Overrated. Plain and simple. Freddie Kitchens will be worried more each week about taking care of his plethora of divas from Mayfield to Beckham, et al, as opposed to X's and O's. They'd better be 4-2 or better at the bye week, because New England looms next. I think they are 3-4 after a New England loss. Let the finger pointing begin.
4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-12): Oh, this is so disappointing. Who knew that when the Bengals ran into the tunnel at Heinz Field after an interception with a minute to go, thinking they'd won, only to end up losing that game, that was the start of their fall, and the end of the Dalton/Green era. Andy doesn't have AJ to start the season and, by the time he returns, it may be too late. Is Ryan Finley the goods?
AFC SOUTH:
1) Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Yes, the Colts. The Captain on Twitter has gone home (I salute Andrew, by the way. It's his life, let him live it). Why can't Jacoby Brissett play well enough to get this team to a winning record, which will be enough for the division? Running and defense are huge factors, and I want to see Mo Alie-Cox get 40 plus catches and six touchdowns. Alie-Cox and Brissett could become the surprise combination of the league.
2) Tennessee Titans (8-8): Derrick Henry finally shows his goods late last year. The problem here is quarterback. Like in Philadelphia, the Titans can't get a full season out of Marcus Mariota. Ryan Tannehill isn't the answer. Two games in three weeks with Houston down the stretch could be key to a late playoff push.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): No, Nick Foles doesn't have magic outside the Eagles locker room. The dysfunctional team of 2018 will be pushed hard by the Browns for that title, but the Jags won't be pushing for the AFC South crown.
4) Houston Texans (6-10): Way too many changes. Way too many. My AFC pick for the Super Bowl last year severely disappointed, and now it seems like they're pushing the panic button over and over.
AFC WEST:
1) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3): So, home-field advantage comes down to a loss in New England in the regular season. There's not much left to say here other than Patrick Mahomes, blazing speed at the skill positions, and Dee Ford can't line up in the neutral zone this year.
2) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): Lots of issues here, but Philip Rivers can handle a revolving door since he lives with such a large family every day. Imagine if they had Okung, Gordon, etc....
3) Oakland Raiders (6-10): A little improvement, but not enough for a postseason bid. I'm still not happy about the Jon Gruden hiring.
4) Denver Broncos (5-11): Joe Flacco isn't the answer. Von Miller will be a frustrated man this year. Times will be tough in Denver.
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
AFC EAST: New England
AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh
AFC SOUTH: Indianapolis
AFC WEST: Kansas City
WILD CARDS: LA Chargers, Tennessee
#1 Seed: New England
#2 Seed: Kansas City
WILD CARD WEEKEND:
#3 Pittsburgh d. #6 Tennessee
#5 LA Chargers d. #4 Indianapolis
AFC DIVISIONALS:
#1 New England d. #5 LA Chargers
#2 Kansas City d. #3 Pittsburgh
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 New England 31, #2 Kansas City 28
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SUPER BOWL LIV: New Orleans 27, New England 24:
The Patriots are back in Miami and in the big game again, but this time, the younger quarterback in his forties gets the better of his elder, and Brees finally lifts a second Lombardi, prompting speculation that he might ride off into the sunset, and also prompting speculation on how Brady can rebound and return to the Super Bowl, again, in 2020.
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2020 NFL DRAFT ORDER:
1) Miami
2) Detroit
3) Cincinnati
4) San Francisco
5) Denver
