Rob's Always Fearless, Always Wrong NFL Predictions: Edition 2022

We begin the 103rd season of the National Football League this week, so, right on schedule, it's time for another look at how this season will definitely NOT unfold. Here are my predictions for the upcoming season, and the last time I'll talk about the NFL until the high school and Randolph-Macon College seasons have concluded.  :)

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE:

NFC East:

#1--Dallas Cowboys (11-6): In a year where they are not the odds-on favorite to win the division, Dak Prescott has a career year, and, more importantly, they'll run the football. One way to help their defense is to win the time of possession battle. Zeke and Tony will be the talk of Big D.

#2--Philadelphia Eagles (9-8): The trendy choice for this division, I'm just not sold. I see a lot of pieces here, but not the whole. I'm not sold on Jalen Hurts. He needs to gain chemistry with A.J. Brown, and fast. Rooting, as always, for Highland Springs grad K'Von Wallace.

#3--Washington Commanders (6-11): No. Carson Wentz is a no. He'll likely have a pick six on a shovel pass inside his own 10 yard line by Week 5. The absence of Chase Young will also hurt a defensive that has been given so many pieces, yet have been the most disappointing unit, maybe, in team history.

#4--New York Giants (4-13): No. Daniel Jones is not a franchise quarterback. It will become painfully apparent as the season unfolds. Can Saquon Barkley actually stay healthy for a full season? I doubt it. This team has a ton of holds. As a Giants fan, it's frustrating to watch, but it's reality.

NFC North:

#1--Green Bay Packers (12-5): While I don't see the Packers being really dominant this regular season, I do think they'll win the division again. Aaron Rodgers will throw touchdown passes to 277 different receivers, including a FedEx delivery driver, a Papa John's delivery driver, and a Starbucks barista.

#2--Minnesota Vikings (9-8): So, Kirk Cousins is an amazing businessman. He's made, like $12 billion as an NFL quarterback, but there's only one playoff win on the resume. Does that change this season? A lot depends on whether Dalvin Cook (like Barkley) can be healthy over seventeen games. I do like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

#3--Chicago Bears (8-9): One of the surprise teams of the season. Justin Fields proves he belongs, and the defense plays better than expected. Not enough for a postseason berth, but enough to create some buzz in Chicago, and, maybe, take some attention over the brewing stadium controversy.

#4--Detroit Lions (5-12): I want to support the Lions. I really do. But then I remember that Jared Goff is their quarterback. I'm still trying to figure out how the Rams made Super Bowl 53 with Jared Goff, who is racing toward the likes of David Woodley and Rex Grossman as worst quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl.

NFC South:

#1--Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7): Something hasn't happened since 2008. That something is an injury to Tom Brady, who blew out a knee on opening day fourteen seasons ago. He won't avoid the injury bug this year, likely something nagging rather than major, but will still have enough to put the Bucs on top in a relatively weak division. 

#2--New Orleans Saints (9-8): I'm just wondering if Jameis Winston can not throw 30 interceptions in a season, which was his number the last season he started in Tampa. Is Michael Thomas good to go? Who knows? This team should, at least, sweep the two teams beneath them.

#3--Carolina Panthers (6-11): Let the Matt Ruhle watch begin. By December, we will know whether Baker Mayfield was actually worthy of the number one overall pick in the draft. Ruhle may be the first to go from the coaching ranks, unless....

#4--Atlanta Falcons (3-14): ....one Arthur realizes another Arthur was a mistake. Marcus Mariota has had injury issues throughout his career, and lost his starting job in Tennessee. It would not surprise me if Atlanta tops the draft order next spring....

NFC West:

#1--San Francisco 49ers (13-4): What quarterback controversy? There's a reason why Kyle Shanahan made peace with Jimmy G. I think we'll see him on the field sooner rather than later, but not due to bad performance by Trey Lance, but by injury. George Kittle is a beast, and Deebo Samuel could be in the MVP discussion this season.

#2--Arizona Cardinals (11-6): I still believe in Kyler Murray, despite the controversy surrounding him in the offseason. Once he's able to enjoy the presence of DeAndre Hopkins again, look out. I'm really hoping this defense can fulfill its potential. Oh, and Highland Springs' Greg Dortch is going to break out this year!!

#3--Los Angeles Rams (8-9): It's been 2016 since the last time a defending Super Bowl champion missed the playoffs (Denver Broncos). It will happen again this year. There will be some injuries, and some surprisingly bad play. But do not cry for Sean McVay. He'll have them back in the hunt in 2023.

#4--Seattle Seahawks (4-13): I don't know exactly where the Seahawks will find the victories this year, but I do think they'll shock the Rams once, and, maybe the Cardinals. At age 70, is Pete Carroll willing the sacrifice this season to get his next Russell Wilson next April? And watch for D.K. Metcalf to get disgruntled. Quickly.

NFC PLAYOFFS:

East: Dallas

North: Green Bay

South: Tampa Bay

West: San Francisco

Wild Cards: Arizona, Minnesota, Philadelphia

BYE: San Francisco

Wild Card Weekend:

#2 Green Bay d. #7 Philadelphia

#6 Minnesota d. #3 Dallas

#5 Arizona d. #4 Tampa Bay

Divisional Round:
#1 San Francisco d. #6 Minnesota
#5 Arizona d. #2 Green Bay

NFC Championship:
#1 San Francisco d. #5 Arizona

****************

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE:

AFC East:

#1--Buffalo Bills (14-3): I still can't believe how you lose a playoff lead with thirteen seconds left. But this will give Sean McDermott, and probable MVP Josh Allen, the motivation to get back there, and much more. Von Miller may not put up huge numbers, but is the perfect veteran piece to galvanize their defense, and get them over the top.

#2--Miami Dolphins (10-7): Tua will be just fine. It was just four years ago when people were talking about how NFL teams should "Tank For Tua". He will prove the naysayers wrong, especially thanks to Tyreek Hill, and the most underrated tight end in the game, Mike Gesecki. I don't like Miami personally, but I like this team.

#3--New England Patriots (7-10): They'll get two wins over the Jets (who won't?), but get swept by the Bills and Dolphins. Mac Jones will be found to be maxed out, and Bill will likely begin thinking about his life post-football.

#4--New York Jets (3-14): Fighting the Falcons, and maybe the Texans, for the #1 pick in 2023, the Jets are grounded again. Wilson will have a very tough time, hopefully avoiding another injury. I can't believe the injury issues for Highland Springs grad Mekhi Becton, and all the negative talk about him on social media. I hope he returns in 2023 and proves the boo-birds wrong.

AFC North:

#1--Baltimore Ravens (12-5): Lamar is back, playing for a new contract (that he'll undoubtedly earn) and, for once, I believe the injury bug will finally avoid Baltimore. In a year with so much talk surrounding quarterbacks in Pittsburgh and Cleveland, a lot of people have forgotten Mr. Jackson. Not me. 

#2--Cincinnati Bengals (11-6): Is Joe Burrow cool or what?? Going up to Rams during the Super Bowl and saying, "Hey, I'm Joe". He may be the coolest customer since another Joe from a half-century ago. I firmly believe last year wasn't a fluke, and Joe Burrow will not follow the "Dan Marino path" of earning a Super Bowl in one's second season, losing, and never returning....

#3--Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8): Mike Tomlin, will, barely, keep the winning season streak in Pittsburgh alive to reach 20 years, but it won't be enough. We'll definitely see Kenny Pickett at some point. I'm not sure why there was trade interest for Mason Rudolph. Minkah Fitzpatrick needs a defensive MVP year to join T.J. Watt as the Steelers will lean on that defense all season.

#4--Cleveland Browns (4-13): Remember, Cleveland won a playoff game and came "thisclose" to eliminating Kansas City. Now, this franchise is in tatters.

AFC South:

#1--Indianapolis Colts (11-6): Matt Ryan earns new life under Frank Reich, Jonathan Taylor has another banner season, and Shaquille Leonard will lead the Colts' defense to another division title.

#2--Tennessee Titans (9-8): Will there be a quarterback controversy in Nashville? Can Derrick Henry stay healthy all season? These are legitimate questions regarding last year's top AFC seed. The bigger question, though, is will this franchise have a hangover from that shocking loss to the Bengals?

#3--Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11): A good season as the turnaround begins, finally, in North Florida. If anyone can get Trevor Lawrence to a legitimate NFL quarterback level, it's Doug Pederson. Look what he did with Carson Wentz in 2017....

#4--Houston Texans (4-13): Man, I love me some Lovie Smith, but man, he inherits a mess here. 

AFC West:

#1--Los Angeles Chargers (12-5): Yes, it's time. It's Justin Herbert time. Their offense is loaded. Now, if they can remind the head coach that kicking an extra point and punting on 4th down at his own 45 are not bad things....

#2--Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): Patrick Mahomes and company nips at the Chargers' heels all season. That first Thursday night game on Amazon Prime is, likely, the biggest game, in my view, in the first month of the season. It's bigger than Bills/Rams because it's a division game in an incredibly crazy division.

#3--Denver Broncos (8-9): I'm not sold on Russell Wilson's weapons. I think Wilson will be fine, but this division is just too tough. The Broncos inch forward. If they lived in the NFC South, they'd threaten Tampa Bay....

#4--Las Vegas Raiders (6-11): Will my favorite team EVER hire a coach I like?? I hated the Gruden return, and I don't like Josh McDaniels. My impression of him is pumping his fist in the air in Denver after beating New England to go to 6-0 as if they'd won the Super Bowl. And then they fell apart. Devante Adams will wish he was back in Lambeau by December.

AFC PLAYOFFS:

East: Buffalo

North: Baltimore

South: Indianapolis

West: LA Chargers

Wild Cards: 

BYE: Buffalo

Wild Card Weekend:

#2 Baltimore d. #7 Miami

#3 L.A. Chargers d. #6 Kansas City

#5 Cincinnati d. #4 Indianapolis

Divisional Round:
#1 Buffalo d. #5 Cincinnati
#3 L.A. Chargers d. #2 Baltimore

NFC Championship:
#1 Buffalo d. #3 L.A. Chargers

*****************

SUPER BOWL LVII:

God bless Chris Berman, he FINALLY gets his wish! It'll be the 49ers and the Bills facing off in Arizona, breaking the two-year "home team plays, wins Super Bowl" narrative.

Buffalo 31, San Francisco 19

And there you have it! Enjoy the alternate universe that reality will unveil between now and February!  :)

My 9/11 Story

 I cannot thank everyone enough for sharing your "Where were you?" stories about September 11, 2001 on my Facebook page. It is so powerful to see that tragic day and how it unfolded from so many perspectives, and it galvanizes, for me, the resolve to truly never forget.

For me, that's not a slogan or a hashtag. The story of every person who died, was injured, became ill due to the toxicity of the damage in Manhattan and at the Pentagon, need to be just as alive and impactful in 5 years, 25 years, 100 years, if we are to continue as the United States of America that we need to be.

I promised my story. It's nothing special. But, looking back, it provides some interesting insight, and a reminder that, sometimes in life, God warns us of something, whether we're ready to understand it or not. In this case, it would be impossible to even conceptualize what that Tuesday morning would become.

My story starts the previous Saturday. On September 8th, we took Robbie and Rachel to an air show at the Louisa County Airport. Robbie wanted to take a flight in a small prop plane, and, of course, Nana (my Mama) paid the fee, and I got to go along for the ride.

I'd never been in a small plane before, and Robbie had the "gag bag" in the front passenger seat, but didn't need to use it. I've only flown a handful of times in my life, and only twice since the 9/11 attacks, in 2008 and 2013. It was a neat experience.

The next morning, I'm teaching Sunday School at Bethlehem Congregational Church in Prince George County, where I pastored for nine years (1996-2005). The title of the lesson that week, in a book that contained 13 weeks' worth of lessons decided upon months (if not longer) in advance, was:

"When Fear Comes Calling".

Lesson taught, sermon preached, go home to follow fantasy football. Typical September Sunday. It was followed by a typical crazy Monday at work.

*****

Tuesday morning, I run the paper route, come home, get ready for work, take Robbie to fourth grade at Longdale Elementary, and, on this morning, take four year old Rachel to the office with me as her Mom had a staff meeting at the credit union. I had a new employee starting in the production department, so the day promised to be busy with tours, introductions, instructions, what if's, and the like.

That changed shortly before 9am when, while walking down the hallway through the sales department of Q94, the manager at the time, Meg Byrd (now Hill), said something about an airplane and the World Trade Center. We walked down the hall and landed at the conference room, where a sales meeting was supposed to be taking place. Looking in the window, we saw the television on, and the fire from the first impact.

I didn't see the second plane hit live, as I continued on with the appointed duties. When I heard about it, I raced back to my office, and turned on a radio. Just after 9:40, the legendary copywriter, the late Carol Deane, burst into the office I shared with three others in four cubicles and said, "They've hit the Pentagon!"

Seconds later, I heard Bryant Gumbel on CBS say, "Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness." At the time, you could listen to the audio of television channel 6 on 87.7 FM. Twenty minutes later, I heard the late Harold Dow try to explain to Dan Rather that an entire tower had collapsed. It was all surreal.

I'm listening, stunned, trying to focus on work. Training quickly went by the wayside, and, remember, all this time I'm taking care of my little girl. Moments later, the phone rang. It was Bonnie, asking me what in the world was going on, as she had no knowledge of the attacks until she turned on the radio in her car coming back across town from that meeting.

She raced to Longdale to get Robbie (schools really didn't want parents pulling kids out, but she thought, we're too close to D.C.. I totally agreed.), then came to Clear Channel to pick up Rachel and I for a quick trip home to grab a battery-powered television to take to the office so I and the three ladies I shared an office with could stay on top of the news.

One of my co-workers grew up near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, and was extremely upset when news of United 93 began to come in. I spent the rest of the day consoling, talking to people, seeing the start of an avalanche of commercial cancellations to handle, all the while processing the day in my brain and checking on my new employee.

The processing was important because, that evening, I began three nights of revival services at a dear friend's church in Prince George not far from Bethlehem. Obviously, any plans for the sermon on the first night were thrown out.

And I returned to "When Fear Comes Calling".

Some nights, I would go down alone to preach in special services like this. That evening, all four of us were in the van. And, to close the day, I'll never forget that, on the way home on Interstate 295, we passed, on the side of the road, a complete convoy of Army vehicles of several kinds. 

Add that visual to the eerie silence in the air with no aircraft activity, and I ended 9/11 having to remind myself of what to do when, indeed, fear comes calling.

I was asked to lead a memorial service at work in the wake of September 11th, which was one of the most humbling experiences of my life. I struggled mightily for words with which to offer hope, healing, consolation, and many other things. 

*****

Now, twenty years later, I also remember what I told my congregation later in 2001, during the time where it seemed like every business marquee in America said, "God Bless America" or "Never Forget", and unity in America was actually a thing.

I said to them, don't get used to this. This united front won't last.

I never dreamed to the extent that we would falter.

My most fervent prayer, going forward, is that we don't have to face another day like September 11, 2001, for us, as a nation, and simply as humans, to be shaken again to our core and remind us what is important, what truly matters.

Love your family. Love your friends. Love your enemies. Turn enemies into friends. And, the next time we face the inevitable fear that comes calling, we will be grounded by togetherness, by faith, and by the strength found in every story from 9/11, those stories I will fight to keep alive as long as I am honored to be on this Earth. 

Rob's Fearless And Always Wrong NFL Predictions: The 2021 Edition

Well, come on in! It's another NFL season, billed as the "biggest season ever", as those of us who still aren't used to 16-game schedules now must adjust from 14 games to seventeen. Because, you know, another week of banging helmets and flying bodies is a great thing. But we digress....

Drew Brees is now in my line of work (with a slightly larger audience), Aaron Rodgers may be on the farewell tour, Tom Brady is a robot, and the Raiders are in turmoil. Some things never change.

So, away we go with another big swing and miss as to who does what in the National Football League this season. One thing that's not wrong: NFL Red Zone is your hook-up, every Sunday afternoon.  :) 

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE:

NFC EAST (I can remember when this was a great division...)

1) Dallas (9-8): Someone will finish the season with a winning record, so I'm begrudgingly giving it to the Cowboys because, well, they have a quarterback. Everything else is suspect, but if Dak stays healthy all season, they have the best chance to, at least, look like a respectable team. They'll start 0-1, by the way.

2) Washington (8-9): Man, gotta give dap to Ryan Fitzpatrick. What a journey, and what a great job in keeping himself "indispensable" in that a team seems to always need him. Well, at least for part of the season. This year, however, may be a full season of "Fitzmagic", since no hot shot first round pick is breathing down his neck in the QB room. Their defense keeps them in the (mediocre) race for the division title, but it won't be enough.

3) Philadelphia (6-10-1): I don't think the Jalen Hurts era lasts long in the City of Brotherly Love and Santa Claus hatred. The Eagles haven't exactly provided him a bevy of offensive weapons, either. Where is the tie, you ask? October 10th against Sam Darnold and Carolina.....

4) New York Football Giants (4-13): The bottom will drop out this season. Daniel Jones will be exposed as the wrong choice to replace Eli, Saquon Barkley may or may not actually finish the season, Kenny Golladay is already having injury issues, and the defense, yeah, well......another LONG season for the G-Men.

NFC NORTH (The Black And Blue Division)

1) Green Bay (14-3): Because. Randall Cobb. No, seriously, Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder for his coach, team management, the producers of Jeopardy! and who knows who else. So, he'll likely throw 40 touchdowns and have like three or four picks all season. Then, somehow, the Packers will find yet another way to fall short of the Super Bowl, endangering Rodgers to fall into "Joe Namath/Dan Marino" territory as all-time great quarterbacks who only made it once to the biggest stage. Rodgers is blessed by the fact that his experience in "The Big Game" was Namath-esque, and not like Marino.

2) Chicago (10-6-1): The Bears will play Justin Fields. Early. I love Andy Dalton and everything he did for my daughter's team, the Bengals, despite the never-ending circumstances with that franchise. But Dalton reminds Bear fans of Mike Tomczak and Rex Grossman and Jay Cutler. They're ready for a Patrick Mahomes (whom they could have drafted.....), so Fields shows up likely no later than an October 10th tie against the Raiders. Enough to make a playoff push? We'll see.....

3) Minnesota (7-10): The clock is running out on Kirk Cousins, and, likely for Mike Zimmer. The Vikings will be competitive, but being swept by the Bears and Packers and going winless after a December 5th win at Detroit will cause a new era to begin in the Twin Cities.

4) Detroit (3-13-1): Coach Campbell should be good for five, nine, or twenty-seven weekly gems when it comes to sound bytes. Otherwise, what is there to be excited about in the Motor City? Go ahead. I'll wait. And while I do, their tie comes on a trip to Denver on December 12th. 

NFC SOUTH (Still Not Used To A "South" Division)

1) Tampa Bay (13-4): The defending champs have all 22 starters back. No reason why they can roll to Los Angeles in February. Except, of course, injuries. I'm looking specifically at the skilled positions. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski. Will any of them make it through seventeen games?  We learned two years ago that when the weapons become mediocre, the Brady machine can stall. To me, that's the only thing keeping them from another NFC title. They'll have to go back to Lambeau to do it, however.

2) Atlanta (9-8): Call me crazy, but I think Matt Ryan has a very, very good season, and their defense improves. Kyle Pitts is my early Rookie of The Year favorite as he channels everyone from John Mackey and Tony Gonzalez to Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Shoot, throw Dave Casper in there, too, for my Raider Nation friends.  Oh, and Josh Rosen comes in once this season for a shaken-up Ryan and leads Atlanta to a come from behind win. You heard it here first.

3) New Orleans (8-9): They still have Alvin Kamara. But teams will now bear down on him, as Drew Brees is gone, and Michael Thomas might as well be. The last time Jameis Winston as a starter at quarterback, he threw 30 touchdowns.....and 30 interceptions. I'm supposed to believe that'll change? 

4) Carolina (5-11-1): So, about that tie.....anyway, we're about to really find out if Sam Darnold is "the one that got away" from the Jets, or just another former fair Jets quarterback (Richard Todd, anyone?). A healthy Christian McCaffrey may help this record improve by a game or two, but there's no postseason in sight. I'm not sure Matt Ruhle is cut out for the NFL. If it doesn't work out, there should be a fresh set of college teams in the Big 12 who would hire him.

NFC WEST (Once Dominated, Now Everyone Is In Play)

1) Arizona (13-4): Here's the NFC's surprise this year. I hear some of you saying this wouldn't be a surprise. But the trendy picks are Seattle with the consistency of Russell Wilson, or Los Angeles with the missing piece that is Matthew Stafford arriving. But I love, love me some Kyler Murray. Competition is written all over his face. He breaks out this season, will sweep the 49ers, and finally take the next step.

2) Los Angeles Rams (11-6): The Rams will sweep the Seahawks and take one from the 49ers and Cardinals, but the real reasons they'll grab a wild card berth are an easy schedule (Texans, Jags, Colts.....) and Aaron Donald. Stafford will play well, but won't live up to the Super Bowl expectations.

3) San Francisco 49ers (9-8): The Niners will fall victim to quarterback insufficiency, in that they won't be able to decide on one. Then, later in the season when both Garopallo and Nance have their confidence tested, one will be pressed into duty due to an injury to the other, and only mediocre results will come. In the postseason race until late, they'll just miss it.

4) Seattle Seahawks (4-13): It has to happen sometime. This has been a fantastic run for Pete Carroll, but they're long overdue for a season of frustrating losses, injuries, and we still don't really know how much discontent there is between the team and Russell Wilson (Collegiate), the team and Duane Brown (Hermitage), or the team and anyone else in Central Virginia. Let the overhaul begin.

NFC PLAYOFFS:

DIVISION WINNERS:
EAST: Dallas Cowboys
NORTH: Green Bay Packers
SOUTH: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WEST: Arizona Cardinals
WILD CARDS: Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons

WILD CARD ROUND: Tampa Bay d. Atlanta, Arizona d. LA Rams; Chicago d. Dallas
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Arizona d. Tampa Bay, Green Bay d. Chicago
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Arizona d. Green Bay

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE:

AFC EAST (Hey! Where did Tom Brady go??)

1) Buffalo Bills (12-5): The Bills were very, very good last year. They'll tread water this season, but it'll be enough to win their division. Another big year for Stephan Diggs. A tough schedule hands them a few losses more than others think, including a split with the Patriots, because....

2) New England Patriots (10-7): I wouldn't say "they're back", but I will say Mac Jones vs Josh Allen should be fun for the next several years. The Pats loaded up on weapons, so Jones will have veterans plenty to throw to, and James White will be a big help for the rookie. 

3) Miami Dolphins (6-10-1): The ugliest Sunday will be their tie against, of all teams, Houston on November 7th. The Dolphins have done little to instill confidence in their quarterback. If you truly believe in Tua, you don't talk about Deshawn Watson with Houston. As a punishment for leaving your young signal caller dangling, you'll tie them in November, a stain on what will be a forgettable season. 

4) New York Jets (4-12-1): So, let's face it. A first-year QB for the New York Jets isn't a recipe for a mighty, immediate resurgence. This time is no different. They'll have a few wins, and they'll improve under Robert Saleh. A lot. But it just won't show up in the win/loss column this year. Oh, and THEIR tie wraps up Thanksgiving weekend with, yep, Houston.

AFC NORTH (We Just Beat Up Each Other And The Bengals):

1) Baltimore Ravens (11-6): I came very close to giving this slot to the Cleveland Browns. But I can't. Because they're the Browns. So the Ravens get it by a hair. This is a strange division, with three good teams, but each with their achilles heel. The running game will be Baltimore's as J.K. Dobbins is gone, and Lamar Jackson has to remember to be a dual threat quarterback.

2) Cleveland Browns (10-7): Baker Mayfield gets better? A little. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the difference here. If the Browns can get above average work from their defensive line, they might make me regret placing them below Baltimore.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10): Big Ben. Ouch. He looks old. He's the last of the big three quarterbacks from the 2004 Draft in uniform (Eli, Rivers), he's lost his long-time center, and JuJu Smith-Schuster doesn't seem ready to be the leader that the likes of Lynn Swann and Hines Ward have been historically for this team. Minkah Fitzpatrick plays his way into the DPOY conversation, but Pittsburgh doesn't make the playoffs.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (5-12): Burrow is back, but it'll take another season for him to really get ahold of the game. Plus, his receiving corp is quite suspect. Higgins good, Chase? He seems skiddish. One more year with A.J. Green, if healthy, would've brought great experience. Bengals fans hope he doesn't tear it up in the Valley of The Sun. Cincinnati just has so many holes, especially the back seven defensively.

AFC SOUTH (AEW Could Win Four Games In This Division):

1) Tennessee Titans (10-7): COVID issues aside, the Titans will get it together after a slow start. They'll need a new tight end with Smith gone to New England. Julio Jones and AJ Brown create quite a one-two punch, and there's that Henry guy. 2,000 yards in a 17-game season? He could stiff-arm his way to one.  :)

2) Indianapolis Colts (9-8): After a year of asking, "Is Carson Wentz the answer?", the answer will be, well, we don't know. He usually deals with injuries, so just having him into January will be an accomplishment. Hopefully T.Y. Hilton gets back soon. I expect bigger things for Mo Alie-Cox.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13): They'll sweep Houston and find an upset win over the Saints on Halloween, but other than that, few treats for Urban Meyer in the first year of his NFL experiment. I think of so many great college coaches who just fell so flat at the professional level (Bud Wilkinson, Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, and let's face it, Barry Switzer had a Ferrari handed to him and turned it into a Ford Focus....), I just can't see this working. 

4) Houston Texans (1-14-2): With the first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.....

AFC WEST (Gunslingers Necessary):

1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-2): The two-time defending AFC champions will benefit from playing the NFC East this season. They'll split with the Chargers and might slip up in D.C. October 17th. Other than that, it's business as usual with a chip on their shoulder after their shockingly poor performance in Super Bowl LV.

2) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): Justin Herbert will take a BIG step forward in year two, be briefly in the MVP conversation, and, most importantly, get the Chargers back to the postseason. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams.....stay healthy!! Who plays tight end is key here, and so is the kicking game.

3) Oakl....ah....Las Vegas Raiders (7-9-1): Mike Mayock is fired in-season as General Manager in a final power ploy that has been going on behind the scenes with Jon Gruden. Derek Carr continues his frustrating play that leaves Raider fans like me looking for the bourbon (and I don't drink!), and, hopefully, just hopefully, Mark Davis wakes up and makes wholesale changes for 2022. I didn't like Gruden's return from the moment it was rumored. Let it end. Soon.

4) Denver Broncos (3-13-1): Goodbye Vic Fangio in a season unfair to Teddy Bridgewater. It's hard to believe this roster was put together by John Elway.

AFC PLAYOFFS:

DIVISION WINNERS:
AFC EAST: Buffalo Bills
AFC NORTH: Baltimore Ravens
AFC SOUTH: Tennessee Titans
AFC WEST: Kansas City Chiefs
WILD CARDS: Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns

WILD CARD ROUND: Buffalo d. Cleveland, New England d. Baltimore, LA Chargers d. Tennessee
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Kansas City d. LA Chargers; Buffalo d. New England
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Buffalo d. Kansas City

SUPER BOWL LVI: It's a shocking matchup as a team who may not even play in their longtime city a couple of years from now, and has lost four Super Bowls, faces a historically bad Cardinals franchise who led late in their only Super Bowl appearance only to see Santonio Holmes catch a pass with 57 Cardinals surrounding him to give Pittsburgh the win 13 seasons ago (13?!?).

So, in true Buffalo and Arizona fashion, the game will end in a tie and Roger Goodell will take the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to his basement.

Just kidding.....

Buffalo 31, Arizona 26

And now that you know what WON'T happen over the next five months, enjoy the season, and stay safe!  :) 

Another Perspective on 2020

 Years ago, when I was a much more active blogger here, I'd always do a year in review post. After these last twelve months, even though I'm stuck in bed sick on New Year's Eve, I had a few thoughts to share.

We all began the new year (and new decade) with preconceived assumptions of what to generally expect in life, plus plans for the year ahead like vacations, work goals, personal health goals, paying off a bill, buying a car, whatever it may have been.

When I saw the story of Li Wenliang just into the New Year, I had no idea that what he was trying to warn his colleagues about (and was later forced to recant by his friendly government) was about to change everything.

For me, March 11, 2020 ranks with September 11, 2001. This is not a comparison. This is an acknowledgement that the events of that late winter Wednesday made a profound change on our families, communities, our country and our world. 

I called a Randolph-Macon women's lacrosse victory online that evening, then stopped at the radio station to work on a few things. I brought up Tweetdeck, only to find the NBA announcing the suspension of their season.

Their season. They simply hit pause.

Suddenly, the ripple effect in sports, which play a big role in my life, became a tidal wave. It was the weekend of college basketball conference tournaments, some that were already underway. That next day, Thursday March 12, one by one, even as teams such as VCU were out warming up to play their first game, conferences opted to cancel the tournaments and send everyone home.

We all know the rest of the story. It's been 296 days since I did play-by-play on any sporting event. It's been close to that much time since I last filed a newspaper article. In this time, I've learned a few things, and while some feelings were cemented, others were adjusted.

1) I wish so badly that, when I had the chance, I would have talked in depth with people I knew who had firsthand knowledge of the year 1918. There was a sweet lady in the church I pastored in Prince George County, in her 80s, her mind sharp as a tack. What I would give to sit down with her for one afternoon and just talk about her childhood, about her parents and their stories about the pandemic of 102 years ago. The information would have been priceless.

2) My generation (I guess Generation X, having been born in 1967), and the generation of my children, can now begin to understand, first hand, life in truly difficult times. Even at 53 years old, I had never experienced a year like 1918, with the world at war and millions dying. Or 1942, as we sent our men by the hundreds of thousands to Africa, Europe and the Pacific, and we truly wondered if Nazi Germany would show up on our shores. Or 1930 and 1931, as the Great Depression tightened its grip on America, and people were literally starving to death.

3) In those times, there were no phones, no apps, no DoorDash for safe delivery of your chicken wings. The sale of cars plummeted due to the Depression. I think both generations I referenced earlier would have had a very, very difficult time handling COVID-19 in an age where you still churned your own butter, milked the cow, and walked to market, if it was open.

4) While certainly disappointed that I had no football to broadcast this past fall, I mourned its loss rather quickly. When put into proper perspective, I'm much more concerned about the thousands of lives at risk today, the 340,000 plus that have died from COVID-19 and their families. Bickering about whether a sport should be played seems unbelievably shallow to me.

5) My one political point: I love the Chinese people. I hate the Chinese Communist Party with a passion. They are the cause of this pandemic. It began there. They attempted to cover it up, silence the whistleblower(s), continue with celebrations in January all the while knowing what was happening. And if you believe the numbers they report to the WHO, I've got a bridge over water in the Sahara Desert to sell you. I heard someone say, just after the fall of the Soviet Union nearly three decades ago, "You can only trust Communists....to be Communists." I've never been more concerned about our national sovereignty than I am today, and I lived through the last 20 plus years of the Cold War. 

*****

As we enter 2021, I'm thankful that my wife has been able to work from home since March 18th without skipping a beat. I'm thankful that I've become her Starbucks errand boy, and that doing the dishes, feeding the dogs, and doing the laundry was already on my list anyway. I just had more time, especially at night, to do them.

I'm thankful my daughter was able to find a way to do her practicum inside a classroom this fall, continuing her online studies with a 4.0, on track to get her Master's Degree in May. I'm thankful my son's case of COVID-19 over the summer was very, very mild. His worst symptom was a nagging cough. 

I'm thankful for my beautiful two grandchildren and for their health especially. I'm thankful, too, that they won't remember 2020. :)

To all of you, my wish for you is a safe, happy and healthy 2021. Let's all take a deep breath, love one another, look out for one another, agree to disagree and keep friendships alive rather than take potshots at people behind a laptop screen and block them from social media. 

You see, I don't have to agree with you on something to love you. My friends range from ministers to a former porn star. Love people where they are for who they are. I know a guy who presented us that example, oh, about 2,000 years ago. He was a carpenter....by trade. 

Rob's Fearless and Always Wrong NFL Predictions: The 2020 Version

Well, hi everyone. What a long, strange trip this has been. No high school or Randolph-Macon College football for me this autumn, which has led me to spend exactly no extra time whatsoever contemplating the 2020 National Football League season. I don't even have a fantasy team, much less a league. But these circumstances would never stop me in my quest to provide yet another exciting season of woefully inadequate, and inaccurate, season predictions! So, away we go! We'll start with the NFC.... 

NFC EAST: 

1) Dallas Cowboys (10-6): A pretty interesting array of talent here, but since the "Triplets" era ended, this franchise has woefully underachieved. Once a staple to be in the NFC Championship Game, their last appearance was, can you believe it, 25 years ago?? If this defense can be top ten in the league, and the offense avoid the injury bug, maybe they give hope to Dallas fans everywhere that the streak ends in 2020. 

2) Philadelphia Eagles (7-9): I want to like this team. I really do. I'm certainly rooting for K'Von Wallace, who I covered for years at Highland Springs as he begins his pro career in Philly. Will Carson Wentz still be upright in December? To me, everything revolves around the presence and performance of their quarterback. The pieces around him will go a long way to determining whether he's still slinging at Christmas, fighting for a playoff berth, or, on the bench, watching another promising season go by the boards. 

3) New York Giants (6-10): Let's be honest. If the Giants don't take a step forward this year, what do you do? It's a bad time to be a new coach (Joe Judge), your quarterback must grow, significantly, and your star tailback better be able to play all sixteen games. The defense will be suspect, and that's always the Giants' achilles heel. When this franchise wins Super Bowls, they are monsters on defense, especially at the line of scrimmage. There's no Super Bowl in the cards for them this year. 

4) Washington Football Team (6-10): Ron Rivera is a very good football coach. Washington is blessed to have him. I'm praying that he beats off cancer and is able to make significant contributions to the team's efforts this season. I'm not sure Rivera can make Dwayne Haskins "Cam Newton 2.0", but I do expect much better play from the quarterback and co-captain. And maybe Rivera knows what he has in the backfield since cutting Adrian Peterson. Letting young, unknown, hungry players run wild can produce some exciting and eye-raising results. The defense? Hmmm..... 

NFC NORTH: 

1) Minnesota Vikings (13-3): This team, this franchise, is long overdue for a significant season, and they have pieces together to make it happen, even with Stefon Diggs' departure to Buffalo. A steady dose of Dalvin Cook and top notch defensive play, and Kirk Cousins not overdoing it, could give the Vikings their best season since 1998. And Gary Anderson isn't their kicker this season, so maybe they can...... 

2) Green Bay Packers (11-5): Aaron Rodgers. How much longer does the magic last? Does he know the names of all of his receivers? If so, will he know all the replacement names in week fourteen? Can this defense stop anyone with consistency? Rodgers wills this franchise to victories, but after two horrible losses to San Francisco, they must take a big step forward if they want to try to get Aaron what Brett Favre never received: a second Lombardi Trophy. 

3) Chicago Bears (6-10): This may not end well. After a promising first season under Matt Nagy, the fraying began last year, and, this year, it starts to fall apart. Trubisky isn't the answer, Foles normally does not perform well in these circumstances (taking over a losing franchise). I just don't see this working. Sorry Bears fans. 

4) Detroit Lions (3-12-1): Goodbye Matt Patricia. 

NFC SOUTH: 

1) New Orleans Saints (13-3): This team will have a mighty chip on its collective shoulder. No miracles bounced them out of the playoffs last year; just a disappointing performance against Minnesota. I could see this as Drew Brees' last season, last try to return to the Super Bowl. If Alvin Kamara takes his "I want a new contract" attitude to the field and allow it to bear fruit, this team could finally reach the summit. 

2) Carolina Panthers (9-7): The surprise team of the NFC this year. Teddy Bridgewater finally gets to shine, clicks big time with Christian McCaffrey, and a new, young, swarming set of defenders create a defense which will turn some heads. They may not make the postseason, but there will be games in December in Charlotte that are meaningful. That's a far cry from a year ago. 

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8): This isn't going to work. The back half of 2019 showed that the Tom Brady of lore may be fading away. I believe he has some football left in him, but not with his usual consistency. This is reminding me of the New York Yankees of the 1980's where, every year, George Steinbrenner would buy the pieces he thought he needed to keep winning. The results were one World Series trip (in a strike year), which they lost, then nothing for 15 years. Who's their backup? Blaine Gabbert? Okay. 

4) Atlanta Falcons (5-10-1): An extra season for Dan Quinn was not the answer. The Falcons are a franchise which have had moments of glory, but never an ascent to the ultimate goal. Tim Marzetti, the bartender, kicking five field goals on Monday Night Football. The great defenses of the late 70's and early 90's which made headlines, but not Super Bowls. The "accidental" Super Bowl in 1998 (thanks Gary!), and, of course, "28-3". A reboot will be needed in Atlanta for 2021 and beyond. 

NFC WEST: 

1) San Francisco 49ers (11-5): I think the injury bug may play a factor here this year, but there's plenty of talent to help the Niners win the division. I can't wait to watch another season of George Kittle. He's Dave Casper and Mark Bavaro with some bravado and slightly longer hair. He's also a joy to watch. 

2) Seattle Seahawks (10-6): Seattle will always be in playoff contention so long as Russell Wilson is under center. I just hope this isn't the year where he goes down with a big injury. That team revolves around him like no other in the league. 

3) Arizona Cardinals (7-9): Kyler Murray in year two, now with DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald? This will be fun to watch. If they've beefed up their defense, which was definitely a priority, and can have it so Murray can win games with 24 points rather than 35, the Cardinals could be a late factor. A slow start, though, may be their waterloo come end of December. 

4) Los Angeles Rams (5-11): A shocking first season in the stadium of dreams. Does anyone else feel like this team peaked WAY too quickly? Injuries, and a disappointing season for Jared Goff spell doom for the Rams, but no worries for Sean McVay. He has capital there, plenty to stay and rebuild.

PLAYOFFS (New Format!)

#1 New Orleans (a Christmas Day win over Minnesota earns the top seed) 

WILD CARD ROUND: #2 Minnesota def. #7 Carolina 

                              #6 Seattle def. #3 San Francisco 

                              #5 Green Bay def. #4 Dallas 

DIVISIONAL ROUND: #1 New Orleans def. #6 Seattle 

                                          #5 Green Bay def. #2 Minnesota 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #5 Green Bay def. #1 New Orleans 

 ***** 

AFC EAST: 

1) Buffalo Bills (9-7): With the departure of Tom Brady, the AFC East is finally up for grabs, and this year will be a war of attrition to see who survives and ends up on top. Josh Allen won't go to the Hall of Fame, but he improves enough in year three to keep Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, and, eventually, Tua at bay. Plus, Buffalo's defense will be the best in the division. 

2) New England Patriots (8-8): Splitting with the Bills will hurt, but, of all things, a January 3rd loss to the Jets will end the long playoff run of New England. Cam Newton, by the way, will have a very, very good season. 

3) Miami Dolphins (6-10): Tua by Week 4 or 5 after one of Ryan Fitzpatrick's famous four-interception games. Tua stays healthy, takes his rookie lumps, and Miami will be in better position for 2021. 

4) New York Jets (4-12): Goodbye Adam Gase. Why did they hire him? 

AFC NORTH: 

1) Baltimore Ravens (12-4): No twelve-game winning streaks, and defenses will do a better job containing Lamar Jackson, but the Ravens can adjust, too, and will do so to another division title with really no significant challenge there. The significant challenge? Not losing in the first round. 

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): Big Ben is back, but he's back with a team that has gone through so much mentally in the past 18 months or so. They're good enough to fight for a playoff spot, but not much more. 

3) Cincinnati Bengals (6-10): Hey Joe! Where you going with that football in your hand? New hope for the fans who actually get to come to Paul Brown Stadium, as, with a healthy A.J. Green, Zac Taylor finally gets to really work with a quarterback ready to learn and with nothing to lose. 

4) Cleveland Browns (5-11): I don't know what it will take for this franchise to get back to, at least, the Bernie Kosar years. Baker Mayfield is way too inconsistent. Odell always makes noise. The ingredients here are not the right ones. 

AFC SOUTH: 

1) Houston Texans (10-6): Despite losing Hopkins, and with David Johnson so injury prone, Deshaun Watson still has an MVP caliber season. It carries the Texans to a division title. Can J.J. Watt return to pre-injury form? Are there other defenders to truly help him? 

2) Indianapolis Colts (9-7): This is the best place for Philip Rivers. He may have five seconds, instead of 2.3, to find receivers and throw the ball. I really like this marriage, Frank Reich knows Rivers well. I hope to see Mo Alie Cox to play a bigger role at tight end. 

3) Tennessee Titans (6-10): A one-year wonder. Derrick Henry can't do it all, and Ryan Tannehill returns to Miami form. 

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12): Squarely in the running for the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, and they'll be pining for him if "Minshew Magic" fades away. At least Tony Khan's other endeavor seems to be gaining traction.... 

AFC WEST: 

1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-2): It's a cakewalk. The Chiefs are so far ahead of their division foes, it's not even funny. Last year, they had to scrap and claw, then make history against Houston, then avoided Baltimore in the AFC Championship. This year, the reqular season is a breeze. The playoffs will pose the high challenge, even with the lone bye. 

2) Las Vegas Raiders (9-7): My Raiders will win just enough to keep Jon Gruden. AGAIN. If this is the best this regime can produce, can we just move on already? 

3) Los Angeles Chargers (7-9): Tyrod Taylor overperforms, but we'll see Justin Herbert at some point. There's more talent here than people realize. They'll put scares in a lot of teams this season. 

4) Denver Broncos (4-12): Losing Von Miller is devastating. Their defense had to carry a still developing offense, and now your engine is gone. Not good. 

PLAYOFFS: #1 Kansas City 

WILD CARD ROUND: #2 Baltimore def. #7 Las Vegas 

                                        #6 Indianapolis def. #3 Houston 

                                        #4 Buffalo def. #5 Pittsburgh 

DIVISION ROUND: #1 Kansas City def. #6 Indianapolis

                                    #2 Baltimore def. #4 Buffalo 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #2 Baltimore def. #1 Kansas City 

 ******* 

SUPER BOWL LV: Green Bay 27, Baltimore 24 (OT): It's old school vs. new generation, but Aaron Jones grabs MVP honors as a field goal late in overtime finally gives Rodgers his second title, and the Packers their fifth Lombardi. Enjoy the season everyone! From a distance!

It Was Twenty Years Ago Today.....

November 10, 1999 is one of the top ten most important days of my life.

Driving to a wedding planning meeting today, I was reminded of this, the 20th anniversary of two huge events. First, and foremost, my son accepted Jesus as his Savior on this night two decades ago. That is everything.

But I want to focus on what else happened to me that day. For the first time, I stepped into the magical building on Church Hill that, today, houses ChildSavers, but, at the time, hosted WRVA and WRNL Radio and the Virginia Radio Network.

One Sunday in October, I happened to notice a help wanted ad in the Sunday paper (remember them?) that said WRVA was in need of a production director. Now, at the time, I was very, very happy as a pastor of a church in Prince George County, and the stay-at-home dad of a second grader and a two year old cutie in the midst of potty training.

I will squelch the theory now that I went for the job to avoid the potty training.  :)

I decided to throw my hat into the ring, and, a couple of weeks later, was stunned to stand in my kitchen, on the telephone that was on the wall (remember them?), talking to Program Director Tim Farley.

He offered. I accepted. Let the pinching begin.

I took a tour on November 3rd and met most everyone. A week later, on a Wednesday, because I had promised to chaperone Robbie's field trip earlier in the week and kept that promise, I walked into the entrance from the parking lot into the storied building.

Tim Timberlake and John Harding were on the morning show. Big Al was cooking sports on 910. I went to the restroom, had a seat, and asked out loud (I think), "What in the world am I doing here?" I was a Miami Marlin utility player about to bat ninth for the New York Yankees, if that analogy makes sense.

My office was next to Lou Dean's office. How's that for pressure? I took a deep breath, and I jumped into the proverbial puddle with both feet. The holiday season was upon us, and there was no time to waste. I learned DGS, watched people use the digital editing equipment I'd never touched before, taught myself the rest of it through trial and error, immersed myself into traffic instructions and production orders and typing cart labels (radio people, remember them?).

Within two weeks, it was home. That production studio quickly became, to me, like the most comfortable pair of shoes you've ever worn.

And this MUST be said. I've worked at several different radio "groups" over 34 years. The least amount of egos were found on Church Hill. Most people would think it would be the opposite. But no way. Lou, Tim, Tim, John, Pam, Veronica, Deanna, Gary, Al, Bob, Bob, and I could go on and on, all were helpful, hospitable, and became friends.

Nancy and Carol became my rock. Jeanette, Amber....my mind is racing around the top floor of the building for all the great people who treated me so, so well. Joan, Todd, Ken, Carl, June, Holly, Missy, Maureen, Rick, John....

My blessing had an unfortunate side, as, nine months later, I watched Clear Channel (that's "iHeartMedia" for those of you under 25) completely dismantle a heritage station weeks before it celebrated its 75th anniversary on the air. That's a huge deal. The corporate suits completely ignored it, killed local talk at night, and thought Phil Hendrie was the answer.

WRVA has never recovered. In the last 20 years, our region has essentially been renamed "RVA". Everyone uses it from media to businesses, to even me (see: RVA Sports Network). This should position WRVA perfectly to be a go-to source for information, right?

Not when you load up on syndicated talk, lean to one political side, and get your local talent to talk more about Trump than what's happening in our city. But I digress.

Tonight, I focus on what began for me twenty years ago and how it continues to pay dividends long after I was let go in the great Clear Channel bloodletting of 2007. I have friends for life, experience I continue to use on podcasts from my home, football games on the radio, and other things.

And, as an added bonus, I can say my office was next to Lou Dean's office. Can you say that?

My deepest thanks to Mr. Farley, and everyone from Church Hill, for giving me an opportunity of a lifetime and making a dream truly come true. (My brother, myself, and my father in the WRVA production studio, circa 2000).

Rob's Fearless (And Always Wrong) NFL Predictions: 2019 Edition

We screw it up every year, so it's time to take a few mindless minutes, check out what I have to say about the upcoming NFL season (which will play in the background of my life as I concentrate on Randolph-Macon College and high school football) below.

We'll begin with the NFC, because, why not?

NFC EAST:

1) Dallas Cowboys (10-6): No wild card teams out of this division of dysfunction. Thus, we give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt thanks to a much lesser version of a "Big Three" in Prescott, Elliott and Cooper. Zeke will be back, but only Dallas gets to double digit wins in this division, half of their ten wins, however, will be in division.

2) Washington Redskins (7-9): Their defense will carry the day. Derrius Guice could be very promising, should he stay healthy. But with the quarterback position, again, in transition, and Trent Williams nowhere to be found, Washington better run the football 40 times a game. Will it be enough to finally see Jay Gruden leave? That remains to be seen.

3) Philadelphia Eagles (6-10): A fragile quarterback. Who runs the ball? Plus, the Eagles used up their nine lives in their Super Bowl run of two seasons ago. This franchise takes a step back this year and will need to go into 2020 figuring out their true identity.

4) New York Giants (5-11): Saquon can't do everything. Eli will do better than most people think he will, but, eventually, if you think Daniel Jones is the future, you give him his shot, just as Eli got his in 2004 from a gracious Kurt Warner. The Giants' biggest issue is defense. They are alleged to have one.

NFC NORTH:

1) Green Bay Packers (10-6): New coach, inspired quarterback? Aaron Rodgers will be just fine, but who's around him? Can he identify his skilled teammates? Will he be running for his life? And will the Packers have any semblance of a decent defense? In a division where Detroit is falling apart, Minnesota has the ultimate mediocre quarterback, and Chicago has inflated hopes, I'll take Rodgers. But he'd better hurry if he wants a second Lombardi.

2) Chicago Bears (9-7): Trubisky and company come to earth and, despite great efforts by their defense (which is excellent), don't be surprised if they lose with scores like 16-13, 17-10, 20-14. The Bears will be in the wild card mix down the stretch, but finding points may be an issue all season long.

3) Minnesota Vikings (7-9): Two years ago with Case Keenum, they're in the NFC Championship Game. They thank Keenum for his work, sign Kirk Cousins, and immediately flounder. Cousins is not a quarterback who will provide your franchise that longed for championship. Don't be surprised if there are trade rumors, or first round quarterback talk for the 2020 Draft, after this season.

4) Detroit Lions (3-13): You have to wonder what life could have been like for Matthew Stafford had he been born a year earlier or later. But, he's the top guy when the historically bad Lions (coming off their 0-16 season of 2008) are picking first. Every year I hear the Lions are ready, the Lions made some good moves in March and April. How about some moves into the end zone that matter in December? I feel sorry for Stafford.

NFC SOUTH:

1) New Orleans Saints (13-3): They can fold like a cheap tent after two punches to the gut in the last two playoffs, or they can rise up, as their city did over a decade ago, and give it another shot. It will be the latter as Drew Brees is smart enough to know his window is closer to closed than wide open. Alvin Kamara, if used right, and healthy all year, could be the Offensive Player of The Year. If New Orleans gets decent defense, and good offensive line work, the road to Miami may be going through New Orleans.

2) Atlanta Falcons (9-7): Though several years younger than Brees, you get the feeling the Matt Ryan window is starting to close, too. But he's got Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. If he has four seconds in the pocket most plays, Ryan could honestly complete 75 percent of his passes. But they need offensive balance, and definitely better defensive play. Overall, the Falcons need consistency, in all three phases.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10): I love Bruce Arians. If he had a real franchise quarterback in Tampa Bay, I would consider this team for a playoff spot. I can't see Jameis Winston doing it. But Arians will get the most out of his team, make them better, prepare them for 2020, and then deal with the big question: what do we do at quarterback?

4) Carolina Panthers (5-11): Cam Newton isn't one hundred percent. This could be a very, very long season in Charlotte.

NFC WEST:

1) Seattle Seahawks (11-5): A rejuvenated defense with some studs, a winner in Russell Wilson, and, if the team can gel quickly (Pete Carroll is good at making that happen), I think Seattle surprises this season. The 12th Man is awakened.

2) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): They are good, but there is a hangover coming for the Super Bowl runners-up. Three points in the Super Bowl? Is Todd Gurley ever going to be Gurley again? A Wade Phillips led defense is always good, but, with a first place schedule, and having to play some physical AFC North opponents this year, they're in the wild card hunt, simply trying to not be one of those teams to lose the Super Bowl one year, and miss the playoffs the next.

3) Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Nobody sees anything out of Chicago....ah, St. Louis.....err....Arizona. But give me a season of Larry Fitzgerald mentoring Kyler Murray. Then, a few years later should the Cardinals win it all, Fitzgerald, retired by then, would deserve a ring. I'm looking forward to watching the beginnings of what should be a very good team by 2021 or 2022.

4) San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Jimmy G. is not the answer. Nor is Kyle Shanahan. This will be a bitterly disappointing season for the Niners, who, again, will have to start from scratch some 40 years after starting from scratch with a guy named Bill Walsh.

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:

NFC EAST: Dallas
NFC NORTH: Green Bay
NFC SOUTH: New Orleans
NFC WEST: Seattle
WILD CARDS: Chicago, Atlanta

#1 Seed: New Orleans
#2 Seed: Seattle

WILD CARD WEEKEND:
#6 Chicago d. #3 Green Bay
#5 Atlanta d. #4 Dallas

NFC DIVISIONALS:
#1 New Orleans d. #6 Chicago
#2 Seattle d. #5 Atlanta

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 New Orleans 28, #2 Seattle 24

*************************

AFC EAST:

1) New England Patriots (14-2): Have you studied the Patriots' schedule? They get the Steelers and Chiefs at home. The Chiefs game is the first of three out of four at home to end the season (the others are divisional games in Weeks 16 and 17). This is a cake walk for the Patriots to, again, get the top seed in the AFC.

2) New York Jets (7-9): The Jets are the only team that could spring an upset of the Patriots in the division. Obviously, I'm rooting for new GM Joe Douglas (Lee-Davis Athletic Hall of Famer) to do well, and, of course, I'm ready for my first Greg Dortch punt return for a touchdown (and yes, it will happen in 2019!) Darnold will improve, but Bell will be a disappointment.

3) Buffalo Bills (6-10): It's Buffalo. What can I say?

4) Miami Dolphins (3-13): Talk about a team in disarray. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start well, then get interception prone, and they'll turn to Josh Rosen and wish they could turn to someone else....

AFC NORTH:

1) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): All this Cleveland talk is nauseating. Big Ben has plenty of weapons and fewer distractions and, more importantly, they know how to win. They'll need better defensive play this season to get to this predicted record.

2) Baltimore Ravens (8-8): This prediction is all about whether Lamar Jackson becomes a real dual-threat quarterback. If he has to improvise all the time due to lack of pressure, or receivers who can't get separation, and this could get sideways. Fast.

3) Cleveland Browns (7-9): Overrated. Plain and simple. Freddie Kitchens will be worried more each week about taking care of his plethora of divas from Mayfield to Beckham, et al, as opposed to X's and O's. They'd better be 4-2 or better at the bye week, because New England looms next. I think they are 3-4 after a New England loss. Let the finger pointing begin.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-12): Oh, this is so disappointing. Who knew that when the Bengals ran into the tunnel at Heinz Field after an interception with a minute to go, thinking they'd won, only to end up losing that game, that was the start of their fall, and the end of the Dalton/Green era. Andy doesn't have AJ to start the season and, by the time he returns, it may be too late. Is Ryan Finley the goods?

AFC SOUTH:

1) Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Yes, the Colts. The Captain on Twitter has gone home (I salute Andrew, by the way. It's his life, let him live it). Why can't Jacoby Brissett play well enough to get this team to a winning record, which will be enough for the division? Running and defense are huge factors, and I want to see Mo Alie-Cox get 40 plus catches and six touchdowns. Alie-Cox and Brissett could become the surprise combination of the league.

2) Tennessee Titans (8-8): Derrick Henry finally shows his goods late last year. The problem here is quarterback. Like in Philadelphia, the Titans can't get a full season out of Marcus Mariota. Ryan Tannehill isn't the answer. Two games in three weeks with Houston down the stretch could be key to a late playoff push.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): No, Nick Foles doesn't have magic outside the Eagles locker room. The dysfunctional team of 2018 will be pushed hard by the Browns for that title, but the Jags won't be pushing for the AFC South crown.

4) Houston Texans (6-10): Way too many changes. Way too many. My AFC pick for the Super Bowl last year severely disappointed, and now it seems like they're pushing the panic button over and over.

AFC WEST:

1) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3): So, home-field advantage comes down to a loss in New England in the regular season. There's not much left to say here other than Patrick Mahomes, blazing speed at the skill positions, and Dee Ford can't line up in the neutral zone this year.

2) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): Lots of issues here, but Philip Rivers can handle a revolving door since he lives with such a large family every day. Imagine if they had Okung, Gordon, etc....

3) Oakland Raiders (6-10): A little improvement, but not enough for a postseason bid. I'm still not happy about the Jon Gruden hiring.

4) Denver Broncos (5-11): Joe Flacco isn't the answer. Von Miller will be a frustrated man this year. Times will be tough in Denver.

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:

AFC EAST: New England
AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh
AFC SOUTH: Indianapolis
AFC WEST: Kansas City
WILD CARDS: LA Chargers, Tennessee

#1 Seed: New England
#2 Seed: Kansas City

WILD CARD WEEKEND:
#3 Pittsburgh d. #6 Tennessee
#5 LA Chargers d. #4 Indianapolis

AFC DIVISIONALS:
#1 New England d. #5 LA Chargers
#2 Kansas City d. #3 Pittsburgh

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 New England 31, #2 Kansas City 28


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SUPER BOWL LIV: New Orleans 27, New England 24: 

The Patriots are back in Miami and in the big game again, but this time, the younger quarterback in his forties gets the better of his elder, and Brees finally lifts a second Lombardi, prompting speculation that he might ride off into the sunset, and also prompting speculation on how Brady can rebound and return to the Super Bowl, again, in 2020.

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2020 NFL DRAFT ORDER:

1) Miami
2) Detroit
3) Cincinnati
4) San Francisco
5) Denver

Full Circle: Tragedy To Triumph

Saturday May 18, 2019 marks two major events in the life of my branch of the Witham family tree.

On the 35th anniversary of my father's surgery for a brain aneurysm, his granddaughter, who was born on his 65th birthday, February 26, 1997, will receive her Bachelor's Degree in Theatre Education (with a History Minor) from Longwood University on what promises to be a hot, humid day in Farmville, Virginia.

Any discomfort during the course of the three-hour ceremony will pale in comparison to the outright fear felt 35 years before.

I distinctly remember walking into Dad's hospital room as he waited to be sent to surgery prep, because, in typical Dad form, the words to come out of his mouth were, "What are you doing here?"

It was a Friday. Thus, I should have been in school. I don't exactly remember my reply, but it was a very respectful version of, "you actually thought I was going to school today?"

The next 12-14 hours were spent, you guessed it, mostly waiting. My brother and I played a lot of games of "Dots" on notebook paper.

The odds were split. There was a chance he wouldn't survive the surgery. There was a chance he would, but there would be minor, or, major changes to him, none of which could accurately be predicted, or, he could come out with flying colors.

We finally saw him late, late that Friday night, in ICU with wires and tubes coming from just about any location the human body could house them. He was alive, and all he could worry about, and tell us, was having to use the bathroom. We tried to explain that he had a catheter, so go for it. So, I remember leaving St. Luke's Hospital (today it is Parham Doctors) happy that he pulled through, but unsure how he would be comprised.

Saturday went well, and I did go to work. I worked Sunday after helping lead church service on what was supposed to be Dad's 20th anniversary there. Instead, he spent that day having a seizure on the other side of his brain, and being rushed back into ICU where he slipped into a coma.

That's how he was when I saw him Sunday night. I remember driving up to the Hardee's at Parham and Staples Mill and eating because I needed to, my mind six million miles, or more like 1.2 miles, away.

My stepmom and I did what you always do in life or death situations once we were both back home. We trotted the window air conditioning units from the basement and set them up in our rooms for the summer. We were late getting that done that year. Dad had always taken care of it.

Monday morning, back to St. Luke's, visiting Dad and being mindful of the fact that someone in a coma still has that subconscious tape recorder on. So we talked about the Boston Celtics' run in the NBA playoffs and everything possible that was positive. Then, back to Patrick Henry for the first time in nearly a week, since I had been on a field trip to the University of Richmond in the two days before his surgery.

In the end, the coma ended within 24 hours, Dad was out of ICU by that Friday and was up trying to walk a little bit by Memorial Day. By then, however, it was becoming clear that he was not the "Dad" I knew.

His final 29 years (he passed away on October 2, 2013) were spent remembering what he did as an eight year old and having no clue what he ate for breakfast. A once stoic man who showed little emotion now cried at the drop of a hat. There were times in the early days after several weeks of in-patient therapy at Sheltering Arms that he would start pounding his fist against his head, just wanting to die, so frustrated that he couldn't be himself. It was heartbreaking and exhausting for the rest of us, but we kept fighting so that he, too, would fight.

Some of my best memories of that subsequent summer was taking him back and forth, three times weekly, to outpatient therapy at Sheltering Arms. I enjoyed our car conversations. I also enjoyed getting to go up to Azalea Mall during his therapy and playing Moon Patrol at Woolworth's.  :)

*****

Now we fast forward to 2019. After four long, sometimes exceedingly difficult years, Rachel Elizabeth Witham will do something that no one else in this branch of our family has done. Not even me.

She will graduate high school, enroll in college, and graduate with her Bachelor's Degree in four years.

My college degree was delayed for over a decade (I earned my Bachelor's in 1998, 13 years after high school), thus, she will have one up on me, and will never let me forget it. :)

It is also important to note that Dad, a semester shy of his college degree, left New England School of Theology to move back home to Maine to work, as the oldest son, after his Dad (whom I never met) took off and never returned. Family first. Dad never had the opportunity to finish that semester. However......

The cute freckle-faced, red-haired wonder that shares a birthday with her Papa will force May 18 to become a day a shared emotions. We will celebrate this incredible accomplishment (and trust me, you don't know the inside story of just how difficult it has been for Rachel to get to this point), knowing that Papa would be exceedingly proud as well, as would her Nana, who adored Rachel, but only got to cherish her on this earth for a little less than six years.

I've had a lot of "proud Dad" moments from both of my kids, especially (thank you son!!) the arrival of Robert Edward Witham, IV 16 months ago.

May 18, 2019 will rank high on that list. It was also mark a turning of the page. My son is 27, a father, a husband, while my daughter, at 22, will have a college degree, just got her first car payment, and will soon land her first career job.

You NEVER stop being a parent, but the age of changing diapers, signing permission slips, chaperoning field trips and going to watch high school musicals and choral concerts are done.

And, thus, on this "Full Circle Saturday", May 18, 2019, the date etched on an art display Rachel set up the day she moved into Longwood as a freshman on August 20, 2015, I thank the following:

--God, for allowing me to live to see this day

--Dad, for being willing to share his birthday with a pretty smart cookie

--Dr. Robert Singer and staff at St. Luke's Hospital and the staff at Sheltering Arms Hospital from 1984

--Rachel, for being motivated by many factors, including beating my high school GPA in college  :)

--Harry J., for spending what I am sure were many lonely nights sleeping in his bed on the floor next to my bed wondering where his Mom was going for weeks at a time. He finally got to visit, understand, and he'll earn a degree in "Human Studies" on Saturday. He also got to be the BMOC, as seen by a picture below.  :)

--Our North Carolina family for their unwavering and incredible support for Rachel over the past four years. We will never forget it. :)

*****

On a final note, I will also take time Saturday to remember my very first friend, Michael Crisp, who would have turned 52 years old. We lost him tragically in 2003. I miss him, Dad, Mama, my stepmom, my sister, and my grandparents, all who played a role, big or small, in making May 18, 2019 a reality.

Farewell, Farmville. Tomorrow.

Nick Liberante: An Appreciation

I had been properly warned.

"He's the hardest teacher you'll ever have."

"You'll never get an 'A'."

"Good luck."

Nick Liberante's educational reputation proceeded him. And on August 29, 1983, I encountered a man for the first time who would change my life in ways I could not imagine then, and still cannot fully capture on this, the night of his passing from cancer.

The best way to describe being taught by Nick Liberante was that you were in the presence of the most "complex simplicity" you'll ever experience. A man who was so simple in appearance, a man who never, ever threw his amazing intelligence and depth of knowledge in your face, a man who prepared thoroughly, taught with an uncanny balance of understanding and humor while challenging everything you ever thought, or thought you knew.

His love for the work of Henry David Thoreau was legendary. So was "the red pen".

As the assigned papers were returned to me in English my junior year, the red ink flowed. It did so for good reason. As I texted someone tonight, I felt like I couldn't write complete sentences until I sat under Nick Liberante.

His earned reputation for being a "difficult" (in the positive sense) teacher was spot on. But as the year continued, I really began to understand why he did what he did, and I began to soak it all in. No, I never earned an "A" in the two years I sat in his room, listening to a professor at the high school level, not on official Hanover County Public Schools report cards, that is.

Instead, I happily traded a "B" in English 11, and the only "C" I ever had in school, in 12th grade Advanced Novel, for a lifelong lesson in critical thinking, looking at the full picture, understanding the perspective of others, and, most of all, respect.

*******

If you called him then, or call him even today, "Mr. Liberante", chances are you were never his student.

As year one yielded to year two, and I, someone who generally doesn't enjoy reading novels or books (yes, you read that right), opted for, yes, an ELECTIVE class in Advanced Novel, a year filled with reading books and writing reports, over and over, doing so for just one reason.

I had to sit in Nick's classroom again. I needed more.

By then, he was "Nick". This was in no way disrespectful to my elder. He embraced the fact that many students like me, who so deeply appreciated him, his work, his candor, his honesty and his intelligence, spoke to him that way because he was kind enough to treat us, not as equals, but as humans on the verge of adulthood, readying to tackle the challenges of the world.

There's no way I can count how many Mello Yello canned drinks and creme twirls I threw down in first period, listening to him over a seventeen-year old's abhorrent choice of breakfast foods.

His room, and specifically around his desk, became an inner sanctum for conversation prior to class, discussing the events of the day, whether it was school events or the NCAA Tournament. He was ready for anything. He also deeply appreciated the fact that this next generation thought it so cool to hang out with him.

We all knew we were sitting at the feet of Mount Liberante, and we soaked in every moment.

I had no idea that I would get a second chance at a brush with greatness, but I did.

*******

Fast forward to late 2011. I was struggling with a myriad of health issues (many of which continue to this day) and reached an unwanted crossroads in my life. I was able to fulfill my high school football commitment on radio that fall, and, through the radio station, was introduced to a wonderful gentleman named Greg Glassner, at the time the editor of the Hanover Herald-Progress.

He learned of me through his weekly Friday visits to WHAN (now The Mater) to do an on-air segment of what was in the latest edition of the newspaper. He reached out asking if I would write articles on the games I broadcast. I was happy to do so.

And, when I was forced to leave a full-time position I adored at the end of that year because I was simply too sick to continue, I, on a whim, told Greg I'd be more available should he need more writing. I needed work that my body could handle.

Thus began a six plus year odyssey with the newspaper, and my now forever association with sports in Hanover County. But there was a major bonus.

His main photographer was Nick Liberante.

We had seen each other a few teams over the years at Patrick Henry games, he shooting on the sidelines as I would bloviate in the press box. But now, we became a team. Nick shoots, I write.

By 2012, Nick was the ultimate pro. He could get the money shot before the end of the first quarter, and happily be at home before halftime. I, of course, needed to hang around for the final score. :)

We began planning our weeks. Who do we cover? How do we provide fair coverage of all four schools (when did Atlee and Hanover show up??), plus Randolph-Macon College? Through it all, he was, again, the guiding and calming force, and the master of finding the moment which fit the narrative.

All those years later, we were tag team partners. He was Batman, I was Robin. I always knew, and loved, the pecking order. By now, he was in his final years at Patrick Henry. We had heart attacks in common, and he always had sage advice on keeping the body, as well as the mind, healthy.

Once in a while, I would get a congratulatory email or text from him on a story. No one could send me a higher compliment, no smile I could crack would ever be wider.

The first two get well cards I received after my 2013 heart attack were from the Atlee Softball team, and Nick Liberante. I still have them.

Our run ended when the Herald-Progress inexplicably ended their photographer position in 2016. I mean, who thinks a newspaper is good without pictures?  I shook my head and warned them as they now asked me for pictures (for free, of course) that Nick was the maestro. They traded a master photographer for a picture taker.

When the Herald-Progress ended in March, 2018, a thankful Rob moved over to where Nick landed at Richmond Suburban Newspapers. A reunion was on the horizon. But then life gets in the way. His battle for his life had begun.

In the end, we did get to do several games together for the Local, and if my memory serves me correctly tonight, the last time we were together was over the winter in the gym at, you guessed it, Patrick Henry.

**********

I grieve tonight for his family, especially his grandchildren. He loved them in a way I cannot describe. Our conversations about his trips to watch them and their young adventures were priceless, a final lesson bestowed to me as I began my grandparent journey just over a year ago.

Tonight, I am so thankful for so many things about Nicholas Liberante.

I am thankful for having "Nick" as not just a "teacher", but as a life guide.
I am thankful for his incredible generosity to me in word and in deed, for 35 years.
I am thankful for that "complex simplicity" I wrote about earlier, and the incredible depth of life he lived.
I am thankful for the example of how to never quit thinking, considering, wondering. Keep learning.
I am thankful that he embodied "pay it forward" many years before it even became a catch phrase.

And I am most thankful to have been allowed in to his exclusive fraternity of "Si, Fi, Simplify!"

***********

I leave you with four pictures. The first is Nick, in his inner sanctum of learning, caught in a moment that perfectly explains how much fun we had in his classroom no matter how hard the work was, which only added to the grandeur of his legend. The next two explain how he looked through the lens, always looking for complexities in simple events like celebrating a win, or waiting for an umpire to make a call.

The final shot he took one Friday night several years ago of my daughter Rachel, who, next month, will become the first Witham in portion of the family tree to graduate high school, then graduate college four years later. She'll have a degree in theatre education. She knew Nick long enough to understand why we shed tears while we smile tonight. And if Rachel touches a tenth of the number of students that Nick, a Buffalo, New York native who transformed literally thousands of lives at an unassuming rural high school just outside Ashland, Virginia, did, she will have done quite well.

Rest well, my friend, until we meet again.  :)