Life's been different lately. Having no bedroom for over a month has thrown the whole house, and the whole routine, out of kilter. So, for the first time in 21 years, I don't have a fantasy football team, much less running a league. Maybe a year off will be good. We're about to find out.
I watched as many Rams games as possible trying to see how they'd utilize Sam Rogers (the answer was not much, and the practice squad), covered the Redskins in Richmond, and that's about it. I've got field hockey and volleyball to cover! :)
So, with a pitiful handful of information and a lot of opinion (one of the rare times I give a few "hot takes"), here are my predictions on the road to Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis. Now, if this were Little League, the Vikings would already be guaranteed a playoff berth, but we digress....
NFC:
NFC EAST:
1) Dallas Cowboys (9-7): I don't see another team doing better in this division than Dallas, even without Ezekiel Elliott (maybe) for six games. I actually think Dak Prescott is good. He won't replicate last year, but they'll win enough in the division to take it, somewhat by default (note the final record). A first place schedule hurts, so does a rebuilt secondary, but they have enough offense to have a winning season.
2) New York Giants (8-8): The G-Men will be in the race until they lose in Arizona at Christmas. It gives the Cowboys the division, and they'll rest their starters, again, in another loss to Philadelphia. I don't get all the hype about Brandon Marshall. He's made some beast plays. I applaud his public stance on his dealings with mental illness (trust me, I REALLY understand that), but there aren't enough footballs to satisfy him and Odell Beckham, who I still think is overrated. Top ten wideout, yes. Top five? No. And, does anyone know who will run the football? And we haven't even touched the lines, which are always the key to a Giants Super Bowl run.
3) Philadelphia Eagles (6-10): New shiny wide receivers to try to throw to, but I'm not sold on Carson Wentz. Alshon Jeffrey is known to check out on occasion, too. Their defense is improved, so 20-17 and 17-9 final scores not in the favor of Philly won't be a surprise.
4) Washington Redskins (5-11): Suddenly, Kirk Cousins is available for 2018, but, after this season, teams might rather trade for a high draft pick and grab their future savior from the college ranks. This will be Cousins' last payday, because, I don't think he returns after a subpar season, I think injuries play a role in the season. This team, to me, looked like a group of players practicing when here in Richmond. Not a team. This plays out over the season. Christmas Eve might see more Denver fans in FedEx Field than Redskins fans.
NFC NORTH:
1) Green Bay Packers (12-4): Of course, there's Aaron Rodgers But give me Ty Montgomery, who looks like a beast almost every time he touches the football. He could finish in the top five in the league in rushing, which would be a godsend for the Packers, who better not rely on 34-for-51, 364 yards and two touchdowns from #12 every week. They downgraded at tight end, losing Jared Cook to my Raiders. The defense is still suspect, but the Packers get two over the Bears, likely sweep the Lions, and maybe split with the Vikings, and they get the AFC North in a down year.
2) Minnesota Vikings (8-8): Can Dalvin Cook supply the rushing yards they need? Can Sam Bradford replicate (or improve on) his performance of last year, and, if he does, what do you do when Teddy Bridgewater is finally ready? How good (or bad) is the Viking secondary? They face Rodgers twice, Matthew Stafford twice, Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton.....now, they have to go to Green Bay December 23, no help in a playoff race. The defensive front seven, and consistent work from their offensive line, they are the keys for Minnesota. Oh, and nice new stadium!
3) Detroit Lions (6-10): Matthew Stafford has his big payday, and zero playoff wins. This will continue in 2017. No one has discussed how big a loss Anquan Boldin is. He came up big for this team last year when they needed a Calvin Johnson play, on many occasions. It felt like every week I watched him score a touchdown on NFL Red Zone (I know he didn't, but it felt that way). For the 20th straight year, we have no idea who really leads the running game in Detroit. The mediocrity continues....
4) Chicago Bears (4-12): I don't think this year is a complete disaster for Chicago. They can split with Detroit, maybe get a home win over Minnesota, and they play San Francisco and Cleveland. I can see four wins. I can also see a coaching change, which isn't fair to John Fox, considering what little he's had to work with since arriving in the Windy City
NFC SOUTH:
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5): In making predictions, you need to step on the ledge a few times. Now, I know this ledge is crowded as Tampa Bay is a "trendy" pick, but I really like what I see here, even with Desean Jackson only available for say, five games due to hamstring issues. Mike Evans is ready to become a Top 5 receiver, Jameis Winston is ready to take a huge step forward, and the defense, while it won't look like 2002, should be really good. In their division is an Atlanta team that will step up, a Saints team about to collapse, and a Carolina team in flux. This is the year for them to get it done.
2) Atlanta Falcons (9-7): Of course, there will be a Super Bowl historic collapse hangover. It's inevitable, no matter what Gatorade tries to tell us in their commercial. There's tons of talent here, but I think the team simply struggles under the weight of "28-3", the weight of wanting to erase that, a brand new stadium, and crazy fan expectations (which they deserve to have). Julio Jones is good for at least four wins right off the bat. Jake Matthews has Matt Ryan protected, so expect another big statistical year for Ryan.
3) Carolina Panthers (7-9): You have Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, a returning GM, and a lot of other questions. This team has inconsistency written all over it: win games you shouldn't, lose games you should win. Allowing Newton to be more like Newton would help. He can't keep standing in the pocket and getting pounded. Trust his ability to run and avoid most hits. Russell Wilson has done it. So can Cam.
4) New Orleans Saints (4-12): The first 21st century quarterback to hit "the cliff" will be Drew Brees. No 5,000 yards this year, in fact, he may not finish the season as he's overdue for some sort of injury issue. Brandin Cooks is gone, Coby Fleener is a disappointment, and I'm not sold on AP being a huge solution in the backfield. It's time to look to the future in New Orleans.
NFC WEST:
1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3): I see people picking Arizona here. I can't see that. Yes, they have some dysfunction, but a Pete Carroll team always has some level of it. Wilson has his best season as a pro, Jimmy Graham finally pays off the dividends the Seahawks have been dying for, and Richard Sherman will play with a serious chip on his shoulder. They'll lead the league in interceptions, and, between Bennett and now Sheldon Richardson, they'll be trouble up front defensively. The Road to Minneapolis/St. Paul runs through the 12th Man.
2) Arizona Cardinals (10-6): I do like Arizona making a final playoff push in their current incarnation. It's nearing the end for both Carson Palmer and the great Larry Fitzgerald, and Arizona is one David Johnson injury away from a lost season. This team, maybe more than any, must avoid the injury bug. If they do, the Cards get back to the postseason and would be a tough out for anybody, the team you "don't want to see" in early January.
3) San Francisco 49ers (4-12): The biggest problem coming out of San Francisco this year is that they actually have enough talent to win some games and take themselves out of the running for a top two draft pick to grab a future quarterback. I think they sweep the Rams and they could grab two road wins in Indianapolis and Washington. Brian Hoyer healthy? History says no, so you better get 1,600 yards from Carlos Hyde and some defensive touchdowns. There are enough playmakers on that side of the ball, though young, where they can keep them in a few games. But the Seahawks/49ers "rivalry" is no more.
4) Los Angeles Rams (2-14): Jared Goff is not the answer. I don't think Todd Gurley is, either. Sean McVay, at 31, will feel like he's 51 by late December after the brutal regular season the Rams are about to endure. Aaron Donald hasn't helped matters, and Greg Zuerlein looks human now that he has to kick outdoors most of the time. This season will not help with needed ticket sales for that new stadium come 2020.
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AFC:
AFC EAST:
1) New England Patriots (13-3): A trip to Tampa Bay could be tricky, to Pittsburgh in mid-December a challenge, and they have to go to Denver. Otherwise, smooth sailing for the defending Super Bowl champions, as Tom Brady is still two years away from "The Cliff", and he welcomes Brandin Cooks to the offense. Hogan is going to take care of the loss of Julian Edelman. Who runs the football? Does it matter? Bill Belichick is historically found someone to do enough. The defense is sold, the secondary filthy. Let the next march to the Super Bowl begin (yes, they sweep the division....)
2) Miami Dolphins (8-8): I actually don't think having Jay Cutler at quarterback at the last minute is a bad thing, considering his positive history with head coach Adam Gase. They must get 14-15 games from Jay Ajayi and improved defense, but the Fins should sweep both Buffalo and the Jets. Enough to sneak in as a sixth seed?
3) Buffalo Bills (4-12): Let's help Tyrod Taylor by trading Sammy Watkins. Now, I know Taylor is used to not having him thanks to injuries, but LeSean McCoy will get injured again, and, after that, how they generate offense is beyond me. I feel so bad for Buffalo fans, they deserve so much better.
4) New York Jets (1-15): Oh. My. Word. Todd Bowles is out, possibly before the game after the regular season. Any quarterback named McCown gets hurt, usually sooner than later. Man, I'm not even sure where they'll grab the win (at home against Buffalo??), but they'll avoid 0-16, and Cleveland will be so happy to know they're no longer the worst team in the NFL.
AFC NORTH:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): An inflated record for a very good team in a down division. How much longer does Big Ben want to play? If he can fire for 4,500 yards and tons of connections with Antonio Brown, it could rekindle his fire. The defense is younger, and, I think, a little better. They can go 6-0 in the division. Intangibles are playing in Pittsburgh's favor for this season. They better take advantage of them.
2) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): Andy and A.J. are there. Joe Mixon may be good enough to contend for Rookie of The Year honors. But the offensive line has to be better than last year and Whitworth is gone. The defense is as suspect as last year. So, a second year outside the playoffs and, maybe, finally, a coaching change? My daughter is a Bengals fan, so I root for them a lot, too (just like my son's 49ers). How long can Cincinnati fans continue to accept a "decent" coach who gets you to the playoffs some, but can never win?
3) Baltimore Ravens (6-10): Joe Flacco will be fine. They can start 3-0 (at Cincinnati, home to Cleveland and Jacksonville). Then they host Pittsburgh, go to Oakland, and host the Bears. 4-2 after six, but tougher work on the back end, especially for a defense that doesn't look impressive. Maybe Danny Woodhead has something left in the tank and can pull off a Justin Forsett surprise like a couple of years ago. Would John Harbaugh be in trouble after this?
4) Cleveland Browns (3-13): The Browns might, MIGHT go 2-4 in their division. Kudos to Cleveland for going ahead and finding out whether DeShone Kizer is actually the answer by playing him. They don't expect to be hunting for a playoff bid in late December, but they do expect to know whether they have a QB for the future, or if they've got to look to the 2018 Draft. Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers will be fun to watch as the defensive rebuild begins.
AFC SOUTH:
1) Tennessee Titans (11-5): This is the year for Tennessee to seize this normally mediocre division since the departure of Peyton Manning from Indy. Marcus Mariota will be fine, they hope Derrick Henry is ready to be the man in the backfield, and they might have some wide receiver production. The defense is key here, could be the most underrated in football. It's time for the Titans to take over the South.
2) Houston Texans (9-7): Most of Houston's wins come defensively (Pick Six or game-ending sack, and a few safeties). They'll have to win ugly until either Watson emerges at QB, or they finally find one. The team will also have to deal with the emotions of representing a region rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey. At least they have their home to return to. The Saints, in 2005, after Katrina, spent the season on the road and it was a disaster. But Drew Brees arrived a year later, and the Lombardi Trophy followed in 2009. Imagine Houston's trajectory with a Brees, or Winston, or Mariota under center.....
3) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10): It makes perfect sense, for Jacksonville at least, after being a darling pick for the playoffs last year, to be no one's darling this year. No playoff pick here, but I think Leonard Fournette is the other candidate for Rookie of The Year, this team will realize ball control and savvy defense is their current formula. No Jacksonville quarterback, whether a Bortles or Henne, should pass more than 30 times per game. If they're winging it 50 times, chalk up more "L's".
4) Indianapolis Colts (5-11): This team is in trouble. When does Andrew Luck return? Will he be the same when he does? How old is Frank Gore now? Who helps T.Y. Hilton? Who mans the defense? Remember 2012 when Luck was drafted and Manning was expendable? Remember the Colts a step away from the Super Bowl three seasons ago? The mighty have fallen. Chuck Pagano may fall, too.
AFC WEST:
1) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5): Sweeping the Raiders will give the Chiefs the division crown. They start 0-1 tonight, which won't bother them (remember the 11 straight wins two years ago?). Alex Smith has to prove himself all over again, and will. They need 16 starts from Travis Kelce, and there are a few holes defensively for the first time in a few years. They can go 5-1 in the division. In fact, they need to.
2) Oakland Raiders (11-5): Well, my Raiders finally turned the corner last season. I thought we'd be one and done in the postseason even with Derek Carr, so this year, it's time to get that win, and more. We always lose at Arrowhead, the Tennessee opener is tricky. We need to win in Denver, and we can. Marshawn Lynch won't produce a whole lot, but he's there to keep Oakland fans engaged in the first season of "lame duck" status before the move to Las Vegas. The secondary should be a little better, but it's not improved enough to be a Super Bowl contender this year.
3) Denver Broncos (7-9): Denver could beat New England at home and still finish under .500. No real quarterback to speak of, the beginning of a change on the defense with T.J. Ward's departure, and I'm not seeing a lot of points scored out of this offense. This will be the NFL definition of an "average team" this season.
4) Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): Will the back end of Philip Rivers' career, and Hall of Fame potential, be negatively affected by the team's recent performance? It shouldn't be, if anything, it should show just how impressive he is when he has to learn his wide receiver's name on Tuesday before throwing to him on Sunday. Injuries must not drown the Chargers again like they have in recent seasons, and we're not even sure if Mike Williams will make an impact this season.
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NFC Division Winners: Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Seattle
NFC Wild Cards: Arizona, Atlanta
NFC Byes: Seattle, Green Bay
Wild Card Weekend: Tampa Bay d. Atlanta, Arizona d. Dallas
Divisional Round: Seattle d. Arizona, Tampa Bay d. Green Bay
NFC Championship: Seattle d. Tampa Bay
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Kansas City
AFC Wild Cards: Oakland, Houston
AFC Byes: New England, Pittsburgh
Wild Card Weekend: Oakland d. Tennessee, Houston d. Kansas City
Divisional Round: New England d. Houston, Pittsburgh d. Oakland
AFC Championship: New England d. Pittsburgh
SUPER BOWL LII: Seattle 23, New England 17: Richard Sherman gets a late interception of Tom Brady, and doesn't yell at him on the field post-game. Russell Wilson grabs his second Lombardi and Brady's Super Bowl record falls to 5-3.
