It's becoming a Labor Day tradition, and I need one, since my old tradition is no longer with us. Time for me to completely embarrass myself and try to predict the NFL season which begins Thursday night, apparently.
See, I'm so wrapped up with both high school football and now Randolph-Macon football that, frankly, I've had little time to really focus on the NFL. I see headlines (and I didn't have to go to Redskins Training Camp this year), read a bit, follow the local kids, and that's about it.
Which will probably be proven by what you're about to read. At some point, the balance of power in the league has to change, right? Are the Eagles a one-year wonder? Will Tom Brady and Drew Brees ever be proven to be human? And what in the world is going on with my beloved Raiders?
Let's answer these questions and more! Likely, the answers will be wrong. :)
THE NFC (should be on CBS, is on Fox for the, gulp, 25TH SEASON, with an occasional appearance on CBS...)
NFC EAST:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): The champs win their division by default because, let's face it, who else is actually going to challenge them? The quarterback situation is dicey, their defense will be relied upon to do a lot of the work, but they'll get to the playoffs, and that's about it.
2) Dallas Cowboys (8-8): I'm a huge fun of running the football. Chew the clock, earn the first downs, keep the other offense pensively waiting on their sideline. Everything in Dallas is predicated on their offensive line giving Ezekiel Elliott opportunity. It'll happen enough to where the Cowboys will be achingly close to a playoff spot until Christmas, and most of the talk in December as that run falls short will be, "is this it for Jason Garrett"? The answer is, likely, yes.
3) New York Giants (6-10): Um, hold on fellow Giants fans. It's Saquon Barkley, not Charles. What I mean is, let's give the new guy some time to get used to NFL defenses, and not expect him to race 80 yards to paydirt every week. He's going to be good, but as is the case in football, he's also one play away from turning into another Penn State running back that was once the top pick in the draft. I love the Giants, but Eli will not replicate Peyton circa 2013, I've never been high on Beckham, and now that he's been paid, I'm skeptical of his production. And our defense still stinks.
4) Washington Redskins (3-13): I like Jay Gruden. I really do. But I think it's been exposed that he's a good offensive coordinator. When everyone panics because your rookie running back tears his knee up, how good was your offense to begin with? And, why trade your best defensive player for a quarterback who can get you through the fall, but withers when January rolls around? I like Alex Smith, too. But he's not a playoff quarterback at this point. A long, long year in our Nation's Capital. Bring on the Caps.
NFC NORTH:
1) Green Bay Packers (12-4): They're back. We learned (duh!) last year that a healthy Aaron Rodgers means everything in Cheesehead Country. I think Mike McCarthy actually has a patent on the first cloning device in the world, it's just hidden in a bunker underneath Lambeau Field. Which unnamed receivers we don't know will become All-Pro candidates by Thanksgiving? I'm sure they'll be one. I think the bigger story this season will be the return of the Packers defense. They'll have to improve to stop the Vikings, and, I believe, the Lions. This division will be lots of fun to watch.
2) Minnesota Vikings (9-7): I am not a Kirk Cousins fan. I am a fan of his ability to make excellent financial decisions for himself, however. When all is said and done, he may go down in athletic history as the richest man never to win a playoff game. As for the rest of the team, I was very impressed with how they handled losing Darwin Cook so early. By December, Viking fans forgot he was on IR. And, I like Mike Zimmer. He's a throwback coach like Bruce Arians was. But this year I think the defense finds out how different it is to play Green Bay with #12. Fighting for a wild card bid.
3) Detroit Lions (7-9): It's hard to believe this is Matthew Stafford's tenth season. And, despite a lot of good numerical seasons, still no solid results for a team still cursing Bobby Layne. Again, he'll lead a few comeback wins, likely lose to the Rams the first Sunday of December to end playoff hopes, again, and the never-ending cycle of Detroit Lions football rolls on towards a new decade of futility. That town deserves better.
4) Chicago Bears (5-11): Yes, they got Mack from my Raiders. We'll see if giving up two first round picks was worth it. I'm nowhere near sold on Mitchell, er, ah, Mitch Trubisky. I do like their running game, but unless they keep time of possession 40+ minutes against Rodgers and Stafford (and maybe even Cousins), I don't think they can score enough.
NFC SOUTH:
1) New Orleans Saints (13-3): Hopes are sky high in New Orleans, and rightfully so. They were one poor defensive decision away from the NFC Championship last year (the one time a prevent defense would be useful!), and there's a lot to like about this team's Super Bowl possibilities. I'm surprised at the lack of coverage of the trade for Teddy Bridgewater (a good article on it is here), as, three years from now, it will likely be a more important event than the Mack trade. Add in Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram, and my first pick in my fantasy draft, Alvin Kamara, and what's not to like?
2) Atlanta Falcons (10-6): Good team, great receiver, another team with high expectations. It's also hard to believe it's Matt Ryan's eleventh season at quarterback. The Falcons never go a decade with one guy. Sadly, it won't result in a Super Bowl title. This season, the Falcons are good, but not good enough. Sounds like last year, and 2016.
3) Carolina Panthers (7-9): Tough losses in the division doom Carolina's playoff hopes, and age will begin to show on the defensive side.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14): This team is an absolute mess. And they don't have a leader at quarterback. Their September is nightmarish, and with perhaps the best division in football to deal with, they'll never get any traction. Who takes over as head coach next year? Who becomes the GM? Why did they get rid of Tony Dungy again?
NFC WEST:
1) Seattle Seahawks (9-7): I can't vote against Russell Wilson. He's got moxie, and will provide the will for a team in definite transition. Of all eight divisions this season, I think this is the one that will not turn out the way most people think it will.
2) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): This team has so much talent, I wonder if it became a team of "too much, too soon". Gathering talent, and names, doesn't necessarily mean chemistry, the ability to overcome adversity, etc. I'm intrigued by year three for Goff, and I like Kupp. Aaron Donald is signed, so no distraction there. But this won't be the 14-win team some people think they'll be.
3) Arizona Cardinals (6-10): Maybe in the biggest surprise of the season, Sam Bradford won't get hurt until around Thanksgiving. Sadly, it will mean that, after a 6-4 start, Arizona loses six straight, and Larry Fitzgerald's final season, I hate to say, will end in very disappointing fashion. He deserved better. One of the classiest acts in sports history.
4) San Francisco 49ers (5-11): Yes, Jimmy Garappolo will lose his first NFL game. And then some. This team is too hyped, and not ready, especially on the defensive side. But there is a foundation for a bright future. It's just not now.
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AFC EAST:
1) New England Patriots (14-2): The Patriots have been handed such an easy schedule. Not strength of schedule, but the fact that so many big encounters just happen to be at Gillette Stadium. The Colts, Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, they all go to New England. By the time the Patriots have to go to Heinz Field in mid-December, it won't matter. They'll have the top seed, again, in the AFC. This is all predicated by having Tom Brady all season. If, for some reason, 2018 becomes 2008, this all goes off the rails. But expect the Patriots to wrap up the division by just after Thanksgiving.
2) New York Jets (7-9): Sam Darnold for Rookie of The Year? I'm not sure I'd go that far, but if Todd Bowles and company felt comfortable enough to trade off Teddy Bridgewater either A) he's good, or B) they're stupid and will be unemployed on New Year's Day. I'm leaning to A), and they might even challenge the Patriots in their first meeting November 25th. Not win, but challenge.
3) Buffalo Bills (5-11): Who's the quarterback? What week will LeSean McCoy get the usual nagging injury? When does a town deserving, like Detroit, finally have some real hope?
4) Miami Dolphins (3-13): It's time for Miami to completely reboot. There's really nothing more to say.
AFC NORTH:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): Another season, another Steeler division title. This time, however, it isn't their dominance, it's their residency in a down division. Baltimore is beginning a transition which started when they inexplicably lost to Cincinnati in the final minute New Year's Eve, the Bengals are sliding, and, and, and then there's Cleveland. The one major plus? JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to be a stud. With Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown, I think I could throw for nine touchdowns. :)
2) Baltimore Ravens (7-9): This will likely be Joe Flacco's last hurrah (from the "hard to believe department", it's his eleventh season, too), but I think the Ravens are better served by him actually failing than say, him getting injured and Lamar Jackson hitting the field too soon. He needs to watch for awhile. I think he can be a good NFL quarterback, but needs some nurturing. Collins is key to their team's hopes in the backfield. And Justin Tucker is always worth a win or two.
3) Cleveland Browns (5-11): Yes, they take a step forward, no, they shouldn't throw Baker Mayfield to the wolves. Yes, he has a future, no, he's not "the next Drew Brees" right now. Remember Brees in 2005 when San Diego was pushing him out the door? His best days were ahead of him. If any fan base can be told to hang on a bit for, finally, a franchise quarterback, it shouldn't have to be Cleveland, but they can handle it. They had to live in "LeBron exile" for four years, too. Go with Tyrod Taylor for now to pave through the heavy brush. Now, if Josh Gordon makes it through 16 games, and I pray he does, this could be 6-10.
4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-12): I hate to say this about Rachel's team, but their window of opportunity slammed shut when they prematurely ran off the field in the playoffs three years ago. I still have Week 17 of NFL RedZone on DVR. I turn it on nightly when I go to sleep because our dog, Harry J., has to have light in the room when he sleeps in our bedroom while Rachel is in school. Near the end is the crazy final drive against Baltimore that made Andy Dalton a celebrity in Buffalo. The Bengals may want to trade him there before the end of this year. Of all fan bases in the NFL, I think the one most robbed is Cincinnati's. Mike Brown is a terrible owner. Oh, and that RedZone? It had, on the bottom ticker, all day, the reports that Marvin Lewis would be let go. And he's still there. Good Lord.
AFC SOUTH:
1) Houston Texans (12-4): How 2017 would have been so, so different had the injury bug not decimated Houston. If everyone is back and back to normal, this team has the best chance at knocking off the Patriots. Their #2 seed in the postseason is in spite of the depth in their division. They may even start 0-2, but win the division. Watson is for real, there's no doubt. And Hopkins hasn't really had the chance to have a full season with a fully-prepared franchise quarterback. Their numbers this year may be insane.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6): Again, the Jaguars will be in the mix. Again, their defense will be handling the heavy work. Again, they'll have success despite their quarterback. Leonard Fournette needs to lead the league in rushing, and the Jags need to lead the league in time of possession.
3) Tennessee Titans (7-9): I think the Titans overachieved last year. I also don't think they handled their head coaching situation very well. Yes, we're behind you! Oh, you lost in New England? You're fired! Now Mike Vrabel takes over. Derrick Henry needs to lead the league in rushing.
4) Indianapolis Colts (5-11): Ever seen Andrew Luck's Twitter feed? It's interesting. He talks like an old school war general writing letters back home about the latest battles. This year, his 280 character limit will be tested as he goes to battle with guys whose first names he doesn't even know. A lot has changed in three years.
AFC WEST:
1) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6): The comeback is complete. The injury bug finally flies away as the season begins and Philip Rivers doesn't have to come back from records like 3-6 and 4-7. Keenan Allen looms large, and watch the just-resigned Antonio Gates. Why not a renaissance season to head into the sunset with?
2) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): Lots of talent here. Lots of youth, too. Patrick Mahomes is a huge question mark. He will either be lightning terrific, or a huge bust. But it will take two or more seasons to truly find out, and that won't be enough for Andy Reid should it be the latter, and not the former.
3) Denver Broncos (7-9): Case Keenum had a great moment in the sun last year in a perfect situation. But it didn't include John Elway looking over his shoulder. Minnesota didn't expect 13-3. Now the focus is squarely on him to return the Broncos to their usual glory. The defense, again, is great. The offense, however, won't be.
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13): Welcome back, Chucky!! I didn't like the hire, the way we kicked Jack Del Rio to the curb (though I never saw him as a Super Bowl head coach), and now Gruden, I believe, is more on a power trip to prove Oakland was wrong to trade him away. Gee, I thought he proved that in Super Bowl XXXVII. Amari Cooper can't catch every pass, Lynch can't have much left in the tank, and if Jordy Nelson was still Jordy Nelson, he'd still be in Green Bay. Then, there's the Mack debacle, which was nothing more than a staring match. So, what was proven? Bruce Irvin's obscene tweet following the trade announcement said everything. And I actually had high hopes of our possible trajectory just 21 months ago. At least we have an upgrade at backup quarterback! When he's healthy, of course......geez.
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2019 NFL DRAFT TOP 5:
1) Tampa Bay
2) Oakland
3) Miami
4) Washington
5) Cincinnati
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NFC DIVISION WINNERS: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC WILD CARDS: Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams
NFC PLAYOFFS:
WILD CARD ROUND:
Los Angeles over Philadelphia
Atlanta over Seattle
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
New Orleans over Los Angeles
Green Bay over Atlanta
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: New Orleans 33, Green Bay 27 (OT)
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AFC DIVISION WINNERS: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Los Angeles Chargers
AFC WILD CARDS: Jacksonville, Kansas City
AFC PLAYOFFS:
WILD CARD ROUND:
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Los Angeles Chargers over Jacksonville
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
New England over Los Angeles Chargers
Houston over Pittsburgh
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Houston 20, New England 17
SUPER BOWL LIII: New Orleans 37, Houston 31 (OT): The Saints become the first team in the Super Bowl era to win both their conference championship and the Super Bowl in overtime, Drew Brees brings his son, now 10, back on the dais to accept Lombardi, and joins Elway and Peyton Manning as historic quarterbacks to ride off into the sunset. All the while, Deshaun Watson takes notes, and so does Teddy Bridgewater.
Now that most of this won't happen, happy football season everyone! See you on the radio! :)
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