So, the Governor's race is, THANKFULLY, over in Virginia.
Stink, one of the Attorney General candidates ran an ad at 659pm on television, a full ONE MINUTE before the polls closed (who's placing those ad buys???)
This has been the most boring Governor's race I've seen in Virginia, and I go back to Godwin, Reynolds, Holton, and Howell circa 1969 and 1973. I only missed the '85 election when I was in college.
Jerry Kilgore, the Republican candidate, does not light a fire and doesn't show passion when he speaks, even if he has it. His campaign has never had a definitive message which would convince the Independent voter they needed to change the occupant of the Governor's Mansion from a Democrat to a Republican.
Tim Kaine, the Democratic candidate, has had the advantage of at least looking like he has a definitive message (though his flip-flopping on the death penalty sure made him look un-leaderlike...), and has the advantage that the outgoing Governor, Mark Warner, has high approval ratings.
Also, many Republicans are, quite frankly, p.o.'ed at party members, especially in the General Assembly, for putting down their principals and voting for the largest tax increase in Virginia history last year. Now, you'll never hear Kaine and Warner call it that....
From www.kaine2005.org comes this spin:
Only after cutting state spending commitments dramatically and reducing the size of government did the administration tackle budget reform. This historic reform package helped create a 2004 budget that was fair to working Virginians. The comprehensive, bipartisan budget reform eliminated the state’s portion of the food tax, and reformed the income tax to eliminate the marriage penalty, increase the personal exemption, and removed 141,000 working Virginians from the tax rolls. To accomplish these objectives required a modest ½ cent increase in the sales tax and increasing the cigarette tax to 35% of the national average.
As Governing Magazine has also pointed out, the administration had also won the public trust by cutting three dollars of state spending for every single dollar raised in the budget reform process.
"Budget reform", and it's the "bi-partisan" part that has hurt Republicans. They haven't been this incohesive since, in my view, the last years of the Byrd Machine.
So, all that to say........
When you hear CNN, MSNBC, et al proudly proclaim how Kaine's victory tonight means another huge defeat for President Bush, they are only partially correct.
All politics is local. I can think of four reasons why Tim Kaine wins before the word "Bush" comes to mind:
1) Current Governor has been popular and has been prominently featured in Kaine's campaign. It's amazing how the "Warner Administration" suddenly became the "Warner/Kaine Administration" sometime this past summer.
2) Republican disarray, disagreement, and discontent over the "budget reform".
3) The least charismatic, least focused candidate in years, and years....
4) The public has apparently seen fit to embrace the aforementioned reform, and are believing in the improvements that are coming to, specifically, education and transportation, that have been touted by the Warner team. I believe some will come to pass (transportation, slowly) and some never will (when's the last time you heard a public school official say, "We have just too much money; let's share!!")
Here's the "yes" regarding President Bush:
Isn't it ironic that, after saying no for awhile, Kilgore finally embraced a Presidential visit, which took place in an airport hangar at RIC Airport as Bush returned from his fan tour of Latin America. So, Bush never left the property of the airport to "show his support".
That's not "firing up the troops". Kilgore sure didn't seem to want this rally in what you would call a public square, either!
So, some Bush effect? Yep. More state and local reasons? Sure.
Either way--Virginia Democrats are back on track, and Republicans better regroup, or their legislative majority will evaporate, too.
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President Bush does have something to smile about.....
...he "called" the house over the weekend asking us to vote for Jerry Kilgore, which impressed my daughter to no end. "Daddy, George Bush called us!!", she exclaimed.
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At the doctor today for a boring checkup, I read the cover story on Senator George Allen in the latest National Review. They got him absolutely right.
He comes off as very affable. In fact, I remember him being introduced at a Republican rally here in Richmond the night of the 1992 Richmond Presidential Debate, and he wasn't exactly "publicly chizzled" for politics (kinda goofy looking, I thought), even though he'd been in the General Assembly.
A year later, he comes back from 27 points down to destroy Attorney General Mary Sue Terry, becoming the first Republican to win the Governor's race in Virginia since 1977.
His four years were considered very successful. His family is "picture-perfect" for politics, he has "famous" blood (his father was former NFL coaching great George Allen), he is actually a nice guy, and he also has a side of him that takes no prisoners when it comes to winning.
He took over the US Senate seat by dethroning one-time Presidential hopeful, Chuck Robb (son-in-law of former President Johnson) in 2000. Popular Governor Mark Warner, also considered a rising star on the Democratic side for '08, especially among the "Anti-Hillary" crowd, decided not to seek Allen's seat.
Smart move. Both men benefit. Now Warner can begin working on 2008 after leaving the Governorship, and Allen can focus more time on 2008 now, rather than have to spend the next year trying to hold onto his current job.
No prominent Democrat will be able to give him much of a race, so both Allen and Warner are on the fast track.
It's about time. Virginia is the home of Presidents, they say. Well, lately to be eligible you have to be chiseled in granite somewhere.
Time for another Virginia President! President Allen sounds good, and NO I DO NOT MEAN GEENA DAVIS. YEECH!!!!
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